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You owe your life to Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov

By Steven Meyer - posted Wednesday, 29 August 2012


One problem with terrorist nukes is that the targeted state does not have a return address. Where did the bomb originate?

Rumour has it that the Israelis have warned Iran that should it acquire nukes the Israeli Government will act on the assumption that any nuclear weapon that detonates on Israeli soil originated in Iran.

What of Australia?

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Indonesia has ten time Australia's population and a rapidly growing economy. In the not too distant future Indonesia, not Australia, will be calling the shots in this region.

I suspect it is the future strategic challenge posed by Indonesia, rather than fear of China, that causes Australian governments of whatever complexion to give such a high priority to an alliance with the United States.

I find it hard to believe that Australian governments have not considered the possibility of developing nukes should the alliance with the US falter while Indonesia's military power grows.

In some ways Australia's position is not dissimilar to Israel's.

So what now?

Given the proliferation of nuclear weaponry I think nuclear wars in the future are inevitable. Right now the most likely "icebreaker" is a war in the Middle-East, probably between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However I would not discount other possibilities.

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We live in a very dangerous world.

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About the Author

Steven Meyer graduated as a physicist from the University of Cape Town and has spent most of his life in banking, insurance and utilities, with two stints into academe.

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