You owe your life to Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov

The "mad mullah theory" states that the mullahs who rule Iran are irrational to the point where they cannot be deterred from engaging in a nuclear war. For religious reasons they may feel impelled to attack Israel thus creating the conditions for the emergence of the "hidden Imam." A leading proponent of this theory is Geoffrey Robertson, QC who calls the emergence of a nuclear armed Iran one of the "gravest problems" that will face the international community in coming years.

I am not sure. The Iranian mullahs are certainly a murderous lot ready to sacrifice the lives of gullible young men and women in pursuit of their mad agenda. They have carried out liquidations on a scale that compares with some of the worst excesses of Stalin. Their pursuit of nuclear weaponry is bankrupting Iran.

Here is Geoffrey Robertson's description of the liquidation of groups of political prisoners in Iran in 1988:

They were hung from cranes four at a time, or in groups of six from ropes hanging from the front of the stage in an assembly hall...

By mid-August 1988, thousands of prisoners had been killed in this manner by the state – without trial, without appeal and utterly without mercy.

But, on the other hand, the mullahs have shown a healthy regard for the health and welfare of their sacred selves. Sending young men to fight and die is one thing. Risking your own nuclear vaporisation is another.

My hope is that we do not have to put these conflicting theories to the test.

So what can be done?

I do not think Israel is capable of delivering a knockout blow to Iran's nuclear program using conventional weapons. I also do not think the Israelis will use nukes unless they feel immediately threatened. That leaves the US. I have no idea what the US will do.

Terrorist Nukes

I doubt if any terrorist organisation has the ability to develop nuclear weaponry on its own. Could a terrorist organisation steal bombs?

The obvious weak point is Pakistan. The security services of that country are riddled with fanatics who may be tempted to help terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda steal a bomb – especially if the temptation is reinforced with cash.

Similar comments apply to a future Iranian bomb.