The Tasmanian Liberals must climb a mountain

To conclude, it is instructive to put the task ahead for the Tasmanian Liberals into a modern Australian political context. Over the past ten years, where Labor has come to power in all Australian states, the premierships of Steve Bracks, Mike Rann, Peter Beattie and Bob Carr were all achieved with modest swings. The best of the Labor victories was Jim Bacon’s in 1998 with a 4.3 per cent swing.

To put the task of modern day oppositions into sharper perspective, there have been 19 elections in Australian since 1995 (Western Australia and the Territories excluded because of lack of available data), with the largest swing recorded for a winning opposition party at any elections being 5.0 per cent (for John Howard’s Federal Coalition in 1996, which was considered a landslide).

Elections seemed somewhat more volatile in the 1970s and 1980s, although it is hard to find a swing to an opposition to win an election other than in single figures. There might have been one, but this researcher could not find it. Federal wins for Bob Hawke’s Labor in 1983 and Malcolm Fraser’s Coalition in 1975, both written up as modern day landslides, were won on swings of just over 7 per cent. On a state level, the standout appears to be the 1988 triumph by Nick Greiner’s Coalition in NSW, achieved with nearly a ten per cent swing, beating even the first “Wranslide” of the late 70s.

It is a fact that double-digit swings in favour of an opposition to win government are an extraordinary event in modern Australian political history. The Tasmanian Liberals not only have a mountain to climb, they have to be the first to climb it.