The Tasmanian Liberals must climb a mountain

Seats

Table 3 shows the outcome of applying the adjusted swings to the 2002 election results. The conclusion is that, if a hypothetical election was held today, Labor would win twelve seats, the Liberals eight, the Greens two, while three seats would be doubtful and not settled until after preference distribution. The explanation behind the seat allocation follows.

Bass
Both Liberal and Labor have over two quotas and therefore have at least two seats each, so it comes down to a battle for the fifth. The Liberals here are too far behind in the race to have a chance while the Greens’ Kim Booth almost has a party quota on first preferences and might just scramble home during the cut up; but Labor are still a strong chance on .63 of a quota if they receive the lions share of Liberal and “other” preferences, which history tells us they should. Far too close to call from the data here, so the fifth seat is doubtful.

Braddon
This electorate is straightforward on the data. Labor and the Liberals have enough for two seats each on primaries. In the preference cut up for the fifth seat Labor are far enough ahead of the Greens and Liberals to be certain of taking the seat. Final tally: three Labor, two Liberals.

Lyons
The Greens’ Tim Morris is holding .90 of a quota but he has on this data almost no chance of retaining his seat. The reason is that the Labor and Liberal vote falls just on the quota boundaries, three for Labor and two for Liberal, which means there would be relatively few cut up preferences to distribute, leaving Mr Morris stranded just short. Lyons, therefore, falls three seats to Labor and two to the Liberals.

Denison
With the awesome vote-pulling power of Jim Bacon no longer a factor, the Greens’ leader, Peg Putt, takes the mantle as the standout vote getter in Denison (her 2002 personal vote was nearly as much as the five Liberal candidates combined). The distribution of the Greens’ .32 of a quota surplus will decide whether the Liberals’ second candidate can stay ahead of Labor’s third, who is likely to be the incumbent David Bartlett. So on the data, it is two Labor, one Liberal, one Green and one doubtful between Labor and Liberal.

Franklin
A similar scenario to Denison where the Greens have enough for a seat and the preference distribution will decide who wins the fifth seat out of Labor and Liberal. Labor has the advantage of profile with their three Franklin members being ministers, including premier Paul Lennon, but the Liberals are marginally ahead on primaries. On the data, the tally is two Labor, one Liberal, one Green and one doubtful.

Election quotient

The next question to ask is, what are the mathematical probabilities for the various parliamentary outcomes once the doubtful seats are decided? These probabilities are presented in Table 4 as an election quotient, which is a decimal score out of a maximum of 1.0 which indicates the probability of a particular election outcome. A quotient of .5 (column A) is assigned to each party in each doubtful seat, then the product of various seat combinations (column B) are calculated to give a quotient for each possible outcome (column C). The quotients for each outcome combination are then summed to give the party’s final election quotient for gaining majority government (column D).

The conclusion is that, in a hypothetical election held today, a Labor majority would have an election quotient of .875 (or 87.5 per cent probability), a hung result an election quotient of .125 (12.5 per cent), and a Liberal majority an election quotient of zero.

Mountain to climb

Finally, this paper asks what swings might be needed for the Liberals to achieve the majority task they have set themselves. Running various scenarios through the model the following result were found (calculation sheets available on reasonable request):

• 10 per cent swing to the Liberals. Increasing the swing from 7 to 10 per cent results in an 11/10/2 outcome with two seats doubtful between Labor and Liberal. Labor would have to win both to gain a majority, so the election quotients are .25 for a Labor majority, .75 for a hung parliament, and zero for a Liberal majority;
• 12 per cent swing to the Liberals. The situation does not change with the added two per cent movement. The result is still 11/10/2 with the same probability quotients as those above;
• 15 per cent swing to the Liberals. The Liberals have to attract a swing their way in the mid teens before they start to see any chance of forming a majority. Now the outcome is 11/12/1 with the Greens’ seat in Franklin doubtful. For the first time the model predicts a three-way contest with all parties having close to an equal chance. The election quotient outcomes are .33 for a Liberal majority, .67 for a hung parliament, and zero for a Labor majority;
• 18 per cent swing to the Liberals. Even a swing in the high teens will not make majority a certainty for the Liberals. It gives a 10/12/1 result, with two seats doubtful. The probability quotients are .67 for a Liberal majority, .33 for a hung parliament, and zero for a Labor majority; and 
• 20 per cent swing to the Liberals. At last a swing big enough to guarantee the Liberals a majority, but only just. The outcome would be 10/14/1 with no seats doubtful so the Liberals have an election quotient of 1.0 and are therefore 100 per cent assured of a majority.