Global warming is happening right now

There is argument about IPCC’s estimates of rates of movement towards development equity by poorer nations and whether market exchange rates (as used by the IPCC) or purchasing power parities (as advocated by former Australian Government Statistician Ian Castles and former OECD research director David Henderson) should be used in the calculations. However, Quiggin reviewed this argument in August last year pointing out that it did not have the significance claimed for it. More important are issues of urban planning and energy efficiency.

Despite clear calm statements by people like Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s former Chief John W Zillman, others such as Bob Carter can selectively report controversies and suggest validities where they don’t exist as well as advance silly propositions like setting up “audit panels to check on the soundness of scientific advice".

Last, Oxley misrepresents the position of developing countries and those in the European Union. The former are more diverse than China and India and, despite Buenos Aires, more EU countries are signing up to reduce emissions and trade credits. Oxley’s consistent argument is that cheap energy is good business and anything that affects that is bad. It could surprise Oxley to learn that in the view of Lord Browne, Group Chief Executive of BP, Kyoto 1997 can be compared with the 1946 meetings which have led to tariff reductions and, in the mid 1990s, the WTO. Kyoto is hardly dead.

Oxley’s article is propaganda. That a political position should be taken up whilst consensus behaviour by some scientists is attacked and that scientific predictions should be sidelined whilst rational economics (after all a basis for the rejection of Kyoto and for the pursuit of Free Trade) is embraced is nothing if not bizarre. The outcome of the Buenos Aires meetings are not an occasion for celebration of John Howard’s or George Bush’s wisdom or of the change in the global climate change agenda. It instead requires us to demand that political leadership not add failure to take action on this issue to the failures to take up the challenges of poverty relief, education, population control and disease.