ANU Migration Hub – immigration gaslighter of the year

Cumulatively, in the "five and a half" years since the pandemic hit, "total" migration is estimated as 1.2 million less, than the same period prior. Therefore, Australia is said to have experienced "less migration since the onset of the pandemic", not more.

The brief expresses no firm view, as to what Australia's "normal" levels of migration should be in the future. That "normal", however, should be informed by "facts, not fear or misinformation". Hmm.

Unpacking the brief

The author asserts to be deploying the "main methods" used to define normal migration.

Yet the long-term average of net migration, from federation to date, is only about 80,000 annually.

However, the "Big Australia" years from 2006-2019, before COVID hit, were our most intensive net migration ever. Averaging about 225,000 annually. Prior to 2007, we'd never once topped 200,000.

The selective use of high benchmarks from within this 2006-2019 period creates a false impression of "normal" migration.

Coming through COVID, net migration (December 2024updates) for 2019-20 was 193,000, then negative 85,000 in 2020-21, plus 204,000 in 2021-22, 536,000 in 2022-23, and 446,000 in 2023-24.

Whatever migration scenarios or projections Treasury may have had, these actual numbers don't quite square with the author's shortfall-and-rebound. The actual "shortfall" is small, the "rebound" very large.

Using 225,000 as a (high) yardstick, the only major "shortfall" event was the COVID year 2020-21 itself. But the Coalition topped 200,000 – an immense 290,000 turnaround – the following year.

Adding up the numbers just above, the 2019-24 ABS aggregate is nearly 1,300,000, for an annual average of nearly 260,000. Even though this average includes the entire COVID migration-freeze, it's already comfortablyhigher than the 2006-2019 average. Hard to see much "shortfall" in there.

The Hub portrayal looks distorted. More so, when broadcast as-is by government ABC and other pro-immigration media.

In 2024-25, Labor's actual net-migration outcome will probably nudge 375,000-400,000, as compared with their misleading (Treasury) estimate of 260,000.