Dutton may be winning in the polls. But he has a major problem to overcome

In South Australia, it is worse. The Liberals have only won only a single election in a decade then held office for just one term. Now, their former state parliamentary leader has been charged with drug-related issues. Get prepared for byelection loses. More state Liberals leave the party than stick to it. How could this factionalised party campaign to win back federal seats?

There may be a Liberal Party government in Tasmania but it faltered at the recent election, is tainted by defections and senior ministerial resignation, infrastructure scandals and seems 'Liberal' in name only. Luckily for Dutton, Tasmania only has five House of Representative seats.

Out west the state Liberals were reduced to just two seats in 2021, outnumbered by even the Nationals, and while a revival will occur next year, is the party able to win back the federal seats lost to Labor in 2022?

In Queensland the state Liberal National Party has won one election in 12. That one term Newman government, a textbook case on what not to do, has cast a shadow on the current LNP prior to the October state election causing it to pursue such a cautious small-target election policy strategy.

It can neither support Dutton on nuclear power, provide an alternative budget, nor announce where a new stadium for the 2032 Brisbane Olympics will be built. Even if the LNP wins office as expected, it may prove more a hindrance than a help to Dutton as it learns how to actually govern.

Of course there are the two territories, but they return small numbers of federal seats, in the Northern Territory electoral success has been sporadic in the ACT, rare.

So, given all this, how can Dutton win the next election?