Insurmountable challenges ahead for a new Thai government

A member of the pro-military Palang Pracharath Party has lodged a complaint against Pita. Its alleged that Pita breaches the electoral law by holding shares in a media company, iTV which ceased operations in 2006. The EC has not yet decided whether to refer the matter to the Constitutional Court. Section 98 of the Thai Constitution disallows MPs to hold equity in the media. Although, Pita claims his shareholding is held in the estate from his late father, any court verdict on the matter is unpredictable.

This move has the same hallmarks of the case against the Former Move Forward Party, where the then leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit was disqualified as an MP in 2019, after the general election results.

Pita has been holding press conferences, media interviews, and framing up the signing of a coalition MOU, scheduled for May 22, to enhance the perception of his legitimacy as the natural prime ministerial candidate. However, this may be premature, as 'democracy' Thai style, is much more complex and intriguing than just simply winning the general election. These media appearances may have shown up Pita's and MFP's inexperience. Pita has unintentionally painted himself as a target. The handful of senators who came out in support of voting for Pita will be dealt with to ensure the senate remains solidly behind the establishment.

There are two other games in town, other than Pita's quest for the prime ministership. This may not be the watershed election many are claiming will change the trajectory of Thai politics. More likely this will be the lowering of the Thai silk curtain to protect the establishment.

If no government can be formed, then the spectre of another military coup will arise on the premise of political instability, and the parliament being unable to form any stable government.

It will take two months for the Electoral Commission to certify the results. This gives all parties time to compromise. A lot can happen in politics over two months. Meantime the Prayut government still occupies Government House in the centre of Bangkok, and the moving trucks are no where to be seen.