Why the Russian Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile is a game-changer in warfare

In the twentieth century there were a number of major game-changers in war that enabled technology advantaged states dominate the geo-political world. The development of atomic weapons and use on Japan near the end of WWII, propelled the United States to strategic dominance, until the former USSR matched this weapons technology. Nuclear weapons enabled mutually assured destruction (MAD), which led to strategic détente until the present day.

Its possible that the Russian experimental intermediate range Oreshnik missile system, incorporating new technologies may be such a game-changer in years to come. The hyper-sonic Oreshnik system, which reportedly can travel between Mach 10-12 is equipped with six rocket propelled warheads that can hit targets at such great speeds, making them very difficult to intercept and defend against. The range of potential warheads that can be loaded on the missile provide great versatility. These independent warheads can be guided very accurately onto their targets, minimizing collateral damage, if conventional weapons are used. The mobile nature of their launch systems, make the Oreshnik missile system difficult for the enemy to take out before launch, if they are camouflaged.

The Oreshnik system surprised ‘western’ military experts. The use of these weapons on Ukraine as a test showed their effectiveness of hitting their assigned targets accurately, and the inability of Ukraine’s forces to intercept them.

The Oreshnik intermediate ballistic missile system was the result of the US withdrawing from the Intermediate Range Ballistic Forces Treaty (INF) in 2019under the first Trump administration. This is perhaps a massive mistake, as it has allowed Russia to gain a massive strategic advantage, unless the US has also clandestinely been developing its own system.

The effect of the Oreshnik system om future warfare is that targets can be destroyed in a war theatre without the collateral damage nuclear weapons cause, leaving massive land masses uninhabitable for long periods of time. The Oreshnik system will save civilian lives, but destroy enemy command and control hubs, aviation and port facilities, troop concentrations, supple and logistic lines, and political targets, if necessary.

If such a system is employed before a nuclear launch, then the nuclear deterrent can become ineffective in tactical warfare situations. In the current Ukraine situation, Russian President Putin has an alternative option to nuclear warfare, which until the Oreshnik development wasn’t available. Such capacity by the Russian military must create a caution in the minds of NATO military leaders. If nuclear warheads are used with the system, devastating blows could be made on NATO targets, without NATO forces having the ability to stop such strikes.

In the Indo-Pacific region such intermediate range hyper-sonic systems could render intercontinental ballistic systems obsolete. Intermediate systems such as the Oserhnik system could devastate the military infrastructure of nations before they can utilise ballistic missiles. For countries like Australia, the AUKUS platform of nuclear submarines will do little against the potential threats intermediate hyper-sonic systems might pose. Countries like Australia may have to totally re-think its defence doctrine.

In the future, the incentive to start any wars with the knowledge an enemy can immediately takeout aggressive forces before they act, will be a disincentive for attack. The Oreshnik missile system should change war doctrine in the future.