Biden’s South-East Asia doctrine: repairing damage and neglect from the Obama and Trump years

ASEAN, by default has given legitimacy to the Myanmar Junta. The appointment of Brunei's deputy foreign minister Ergwan Yusof as ASEAN's special envoy to Myanmar, lacks the weight and experience of other potential choices. There is really a lack of any real political will for ASEAN to promote any return to democracy in Myanmar, as most ASEAN members are authoritarian governments in their own right.

There doesn't seem to be any political willingness, on the part of its member countries to change this, so US hopes for the grouping may be unfulfilled.

The Biden doctrine has many tests and challenges ahead. Obama found his pivot to Asia very difficult to implement, more so than was anticipated. Obama's pressing of human rights went largely unheeded, causing more friction, if anything. Biden's value-based partnerships maybe found just as easily testing in many circumstances.

Chinese premier Xi Jinping has consolidated his position in China, just as Putin has in Russia. China and Russia are getting closer together. Personal relationships may do more to shape the region, than reliance on a doctrine thought out in a state department think tank. Thus, future Biden-Xi, and Putin meetings will be most important.

Kurt Campbell himself concedes that this doctrine is only work in progress and will need change and modification as time goes along. The third part of the doctrine is most important, which to date, the administration has been largely silent upon. Economic growth is going to be of paramount importance, when the region is on the other side of the pandemic. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), or some new initiative is missing from the doctrine, as Campbell admits. This is still being developed.

One of the biggest threats to the Biden doctrine is happening right now. The potential fall of Afghanistan, following the fall of Saigon script. This could dent the prestige of the US, and injure perceptions of Biden as a superpower leader. A lot will depend upon how the media portrays the Taliban takeover of the country.

For decades now, the US has on an ad hoc basis cooperated and developed relations with South-East Asian nations. It is really difficult to see how the Biden doctrine will bring to the US more friends than they already have, and make much difference to the Chinese position within the region. What the Biden doctrine may do, is to help prevent the deterioration of the US position anymore than it is now in the region.