What should be in Malaysia’s coming white paper on defence

Another potential threat to Malaysian sovereignty would be either a catastrophic natural disaster such as an earthquake in Sumatra, or violent political upheaval in a neighbouring country that would bring refugees flocking to Malaysia.

Terrorism within Malaysia by non-state actors is a highly probable threat. In 2013 more than 200 militants invaded the Lahad Datu District in Eastern Sabah from Simunul Island in the Southern Philippines. Claiming to be forces of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo, the militants held out against Malaysian Security Forces for around 6 weeks. After a number of skirmishes, ambushes and attacks 45 militants were killed along with 10 Malaysian security personnel and 6 civilians.

Malaysian police have arrested more than 80 people suspected of being linked to ISIS over the last 12 months. More than 30 Malaysians have been identified in Philippine military attacks on ISIS strongholds in the Southern Philippines. Visa free entry for citizens of many Arab nations increases the difficulty of screening for potential terrorist entry into the country. A weakened ISIS in Syria and Southern Philippines leaves Malaysia as a potential location to regroup and use as a base for future attacks.

Perhaps one of the biggest threats to Malaysia is something the upcoming white paper may have little to say about. This is border security. Porous borders in Northern Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah are a major problem.

Besides the Lahad Datu incursion mentioned previously, the Eastern Sabah border is a major route for illegal immigrants to enter Malaysia. Late last year 5 Sarawakians were kidnapped for ransomon Malaysian territory by rogue Indonesian soldiers. Regular wildlife poaching occurs across the borders from Kalimantan into East Malaysia. Illegal immigrants from Myanmar cross over into Malaysia through the Malaysian-Thai Border. A number of border transit campswere found on both sides of the border with mass graves showing both the vast extent and brutality of this people trafficking. Villages in Northern Kelantan bordering Narathiwat, in Southern Thailand act as a safe haven for militants operating in Southern Thailand and as a staging point to bring arms into Malaysia.

Finally, cyber security is a major threat to Malaysia. Critical systems within both the public and private sector are at threat from information theft or sabotage. According to the Malaysian Computer Emergency Response Team (MyCert) there were more than 10,000 cyber-security attackson individuals and corporations across Malaysia in 2018, up 35% on the year before. State sponsored cyber attacks have been well documented and are a real possibility.

Where do the defence forces need to go?

There are no major geo-political strategic threats to Malaysia at this time. In terms of growing Chinese influence within Malaysia, these issues must be dealt with in the civil and economic arenas. China's growing influence within Malaysia is not a military matter. China is not using military strategy to further its interests in the region. Chinese strategy is about infrastructure, finance, technology transfer, and trade. They are the tools of Chinese influence. Dr. Mahathir has quickly showed that he intends to hold Chinese influence on a tighter leash than his predecessor Najib Razak did.

The only threat of a mass invasion into Malaysia is from a major natural disaster or violent political upheaval occurring within a neighbouring country.

Most threats facing Malaysia come under four areas; the waters surrounding Malaysia, the land borders, terrorism, and cyber-attacks.

How are the defence forces going to be transformed to get there?

The Malaysian Army grew out of British tradition and the conflicts it excelled in before and after independence, namely The Malayan emergency, communist insurgency in Sarawak, and the Indonesian confrontation. As mentioned, the army is bloated with 90,000 personnel and needs to be trimmed and restructured to suit the non-traditional security threats facing Malaysia.