A grim future for the ALP

There are at least ten reasons the ALP will be crushed at the next election, to be held when it suits the government. Many overlap but here they are in simple terms.

Money

The ALP will struggle to get funds. The usual union donors will be trying to cope with legal bills and, in some cases, fines for appalling behaviour. And there are problems of declining membership. The fact that electoral defeat is almost certain will deter some business donors. The ALP membership will not be a strong source of funds due to declines in numbers, vitality and enthusiasm.

Some state ALP organisations are in very bad shape. In WA The Greens are raising roughly as much money as the ALP. Crisis is not far off.

Meanwhile, money will not be a problem for the Liberal Party. Business and many rich individuals will provide all that is required and more.

Leadership

PM Turnbull has taken charge of the nation without apparent effort and appears to have some sort of plan for creating a better future despite the many problems facing us all. Bill Shorten looks lost now that his only asset, Tony Abbott, has been removed.

Not that it's all Bill Shortterm's fault. There are no leaders-in-waiting, just alternative faces.

Turnbull has adopted a nice, rich uncle persona and is developing it with great skill. Shorten is more like a rather irritating brother-in-law. You can put up with him but find yourself wondering why your sister ever married him. You certainly don't want him around every day.

Unions

The unions will continue to be a drag on the ALP as the Royal Commission produces more evidence of criminality and, more importantly, disrespect for workers.

Beyond the specific stories will be the ongoing proof of the close relationship between the ALP and the union movement. For many young, and youngish, voters this is mystery as they have never had any real contact with unions and regard them as part of the pre-smartphone era, which to them is a dark incomprehensible void.