A grim future for the ALP

Already we have seen the new government succeeding in restoring the Liberals traditional strong support among women. What Abbott wrecked Turnbull is restoring with cabinet appointments, domestic violence policies and confrontations with the conservative right.

The howling at the moon by the defeated mad right has been turned to advantage rather than just leaving it as a problem that will go away.

The tacticians on the government side are much smarter than their ALP counterparts and can be expected to manage problems well while making the most of their opportunities.

Greens and minor parties

The Greens have been encroaching on ALP inner city seats for nearly a decade. With the new leadership of Richard Di Natale this pressure will grow. New tactics of focussing on winnable House of Representative seats, rather than just on boosting the state-wide vote to get senators elected, increases the prospect of ALP losses.

With ALP defeat highly likely it is also probable that more voters will take the option of supporting The Greens as a way of indicating their displeasure with the ALP.

The Palmer United Party will be irrelevant. The people who voted for it last time were protesting the lack of real options. Now they will back on the market. The slick campaigning of the Liberals, backed up with lots of money, will probably get most of them.

Electoral mood

Most people are rightly worried about job security, drugs, the state of the world and the future of the economy. The self-righteousness that seems so nice and sensible in boom times is changing into a serious concern for stability. The Liberals remain strong in the security story. There is a reluctance to change governments when fear and uncertainty prevails, as long as the government can offer hope for better days ahead. Turnbull does. It is not clear what the ALP offers.

Global realities

The media are treating the mass migrations out of Africa and West Asia into Europe as one-off events, unrelated to financial turmoil on global markets, or to growing real concern about climate change and other environmental issues such as water and food availability. But many voters correctly see these concerns as part of a general systemic failure. The only thing that can stand between them and a global crisis washing over Australia is the government. This all plays into the electoral mood but is not susceptible to internal political debate. Its simply there, hanging over everyone's head, and it favours governments, particularly if they look competent.

It took the untiring efforts of Tony Abbott and his mates to obscure the potential of his own side and to make the ALP look electable. Now the ALP leadership must face some very harsh realities. Stooging around trying to look friendly while promising little handouts to everyone will not do the trick.