A grim future for the ALP

Talent

The Turnbull revolution has brought out a surprising number of intelligent and apparently sane people from Liberal obscurity. Suddenly most of the front bench looks capable and not nasty. And there are more smart people in waiting on the backbench.

The ALP has some capable people and could form a serviceable government if events were drifting easily along. But it does not have the people to inspire confidence that if things go badly wrong the Government will be able to respond with speed and determination.

Media

Most of the media buys into the Turnbull story. They have seen the Abbott fiasco up close and they were horrified. They also understand the talent and leadership relativities. They can be expected to give the new government a good run simply because they believe it is the best hope for national progress.

The extreme right 'personalities' who are still angry at losing their pet PM are also helping the new regime. Having them as enemies will help swing many votes. The conservative politicians still making threats and demanding they be appeased are in the same boat. Their noisy fall from grace makes the new government more attractive.

The easiest ALP stories are now the negative ones.

Policy

Policies will grab hold of the community only if they are part of a meaningful narrative. Turnbull has to finesse his story to take his right wing into account but he has already shown he can do that with ease. His task will get easier still as time goes by.

The ALP has a bigger problem. The conservative union leaders Shorten must confront have more real power than the conservatives confronting Turnbull, and they are directly opposed to the other constituency the ALP must embrace, namely potential Green voters. Early differences between Shorten and Tania Plibersek on gay marriage reflect the need to fight off the Greens in the inner cites while appeasing the conservative base in the outer suburbs.

This problem with constructing a narrative results in the steady stream of 'policy announcements' that are just small spending programs aimed at bribing certain elements of the electorate. Without a meaningful narrative they are pointless.

Tactics