Tide of public opinion to be taken by Queensland ALP

Sources say that the plan is to parachute Dick into Woodridge where the incumbent, 70 year old Desley Scott, is likely to step aside. This may involve a byelection, or Labor may copy Newman's tactic, and run Dick from outside parliament.

That would change everything.

The biggest challenge for a party struggling back from a defeat like the last one is to attract any talent, let alone good talent, to run in even the best seats. Even with Dick as leader the party would still need to have enough talent to look like a credible alternative government.

In Redcliffe Labor got lucky because Yvette D'Ath, the former federal member for that area, was still at a loose end after losing the last federal election. She risked very little in putting her hand up for Redcliffe, and didn't win by that much.

Career changes are rarely that easy, and running for a seat you don't win is an interruption many people don't want.

The recent poor polling of the LNP will also help with candidate selection.

It is already having an effect on LNP morale with a junior front-bencher in open revolt against the government. Newman has been hit by some defections, like Carl Judge, Alex Douglas and Ray Hopper, the latest insurrection is more serious.

Assistant Health Minister, Dr Chris Davis, member for what should be the very marginal seat of Stafford, is in public revolt against his senior minister over the issue of contracts being offered to specialists in the state's hospitals.

Convention demands that he resign before campaigning, but in this case convention be damned. Not only hasn't he resigned, but he is using the threat of his resignation to try to wring concessions from the government.

That he hasn't been stood aside is a sign that the government is not as confident as it appears. That he doesn't appear to understand that he should stand aside is emblematic of a government that has been struggling to pull the right levers of power.

This is another sign to prospective Labor talent that the government's huge majority may not be a good predictor of its next election performance.

Politics is a dynamic business, so things will change again before the next election. And one thing that has changed is the perception that the government can't lose.

That will shake the confidence of the government, making it difficult to stick to a corporate line, as ministers look for short-term popularity over long-term performance, and make the back bench more restless.

It's clear that after the next election a lot of the backbench will not be coming back.

One of those on margins that could disappear if nothing changes, is the premier himself, putting even more pressure on the government. It's not impossible that this could be a one-term government.