Tide of public opinion to be taken by Queensland ALP

The latest Galaxy polling in the state shows the Newman government on 53% of the two-party preferred vote, but given the slight bias towards Labor in the state's electoral boundaries, this is line ball.

Added to that, Galaxy is undoubtedly calculating its 2PP using last election's preference distributions, but this is unwise. Based on the last election at least 23% of the Queensland electorate will vote for independents and minor parties.

Of those, around a third will be Greens who lean overwhelmingly Labor. The balance is shared between independents and the Katter and Palmer parties. Last election they favoured the LNP, but if that doesn't happen this time, the 2PP figures will be worse for the government than they appear.

From our qualitative polling the biggest issues for voters at the moment appear to revolve around the style of government and the personality of the premier, Campbell Newman.

While LNP voters continue to be concerned about the economy and paying down debt, many voters are concerned about what they see as an authoritarian style of government that threatens their livelihoods and privileges.

Bjelke-Petersen held power for as long as he did partly on a law and order agenda, which included draconian curbs on peaceful protest.

On this comparison Queensland's VLAD laws are fairly benign, and are targeted at drug-running bikie gangs, so should play well.

While they have their supporters, they also have their opponents, and the balance is such, that after dithering over their support for the laws for the last 12 months or so - now supporting them, now subtly undermining them - the Labor opposition has vowed to repeal them if they win government.

The Queensland Attorney-General's response to this news demonstrates why the Queensland government is having trouble winning hearts and minds, even on a law and order agenda.

Instead of using this opportunity to lock his opponents in as supporters of organised criminals who are the main suppliers of methamphetamines to Queensland's youth he launched a diatribe accusing Labor of hypocrisy.

That politicians are hypocrites is no news to anyone, and rarely shifts votes very far.