Tide of public opinion to be taken by Queensland ALP

To sell a political solution you need to demonstrate that it fixes a real problem and at the moment Queenslanders don't think bikies are the huge problem that they are.

Crucially, many of the minor party voters are more likely to feel threatened by bikie laws than other voters, so while they are a blue collar constituency, generally open to law and order campaigns, this one appears to be backfiring.

And this has ramifications for the two-party preferred vote.

Another government policy minor party voters don't like is privatisation, but if treasurer Tim Nicholls has his way, this will be one of the key planks in the government's re-election pitch as it seeks endorsement for its plans to sell assets to bring the government debt under control.

Some of this is reflected in the Redcliffe by-election result two weekends ago with somewhere around a 17% swing against the LNP.

But byelections aside voters are not convinced that Labor is the answer. You can see this in the approval ratings of the two leaders. According to our polling Newman has a net negative rating of -19%, not dissimilar to Campbell Newman, while Anastacia Palaszscuk has a rating 28%.

All other things being equal you would think this would translate into a preferred premier win to Palaszscuk, but it doesn't as the table below shows.

Newman is ahead, but only just, and notice how minor party voters are evenly split on the issue, albeit the largest category in their vote is "Unsure".

But that is measuring Newman against Palaszscuk. What if someone more charismatic were to be drafted as leader by Labor?

We might not have long to find out the answer to that question. Labor has a pretty good leadership contender who is currently off-stage, but preparing to come back on.

Cameron Dick lost his seat of Greenslopes at the last election after only one term, but what a term it was. He was immediately made Attorney-General, and then subsequently moved to Education. While he lost Greenslopes, his margin in this traditionally swinging seat was better than margins in much notionally safer Labor seats such as Sandgate and Nudgee.