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Egypt's transitional struggles

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 21 June 2012


They point to the fact that the military had the resources on hand to provide a loan of $1 billion to the Egyptian government just six months ago.

The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi has claimed victory against the military-backed candidate Ahmed Shafiq in the final round of the presidential election.

This sets the scene for ongoing tension between the elected president, a parliament dominated by Islamists and an unelected military council intent on protecting its extensive interests.

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A further complication occurred in the days before the presidential election when the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the election of one third of parliamentarians was invalid and dissolved the parliament.

The SCAF response to that ruling was to assume for itself all legislative powers.

The response from the Muslim Brotherhood to the ruling was ominous, with a statement that Egypt faced " … very difficult days that might be more dangerous than the last days of Mubarak's rule. All the democratic gains of the revolution could be wiped out and overturned with the handing of power to one of the symbols of the previous era."

At this point in the transition from Mubarak's rule, the military remains firmly in control and the Islamist parties lack the capacity to directly challenge the military in the short term.

The concern is that support for more radical ideas will grow among the broader population as the Egyptian economy continues to struggle.

Tourism is one of the bedrocks of the Egyptian economy but visitor numbers plummeted in the wake of the uprisings and ongoing uncertainty has deterred many tourists.

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There has also been an increase in violence and kidnappings in the Sinai Peninsula, which is home to numerous resorts and holiday locations.

Poverty and lack of employment were two of the motivating factors behind the millions of people who took to the streets during the 18 days of protests that toppled Mubarak.

The moderate individuals and groups who played an important role at that time have failed to galvanise into a cohesive political force and that vacuum has been filled by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the al-Noor party of the more radical Salafists.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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