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Egypt's transitional struggles

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 21 June 2012


The euphoria within many elements of Egyptian society at the removal from power of former dictator Hosni Mubarak has now given way to uncertainty, scepticism and even cynicism.

This is due to the power struggle that is now under way between the military that backed Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood.

It is clear that the uprising did not achieve the regime change that many anticipated or expected.

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The military transitional government instituted after Mubarak's removal, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), has consistently stated that it intends to transfer power to a civilian government.

Through its actions however it has sought to entrench its power within Egypt.

Clearly concerned about the potential for the Muslim Brotherhood candidate to win the presidential election, it granted itself greatly increased powers by issuing a decree the day before the election.

This is about much more than political power and the military's operating budget.

Egypt's military has become enmeshed in the nation's broader economy and estimates of its influence vary from 5 per cent to 40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product.

The web of investments and financial holdings is largely secret and very few people know to whom the profits of these enterprises flow.

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The chief financial officer of the SCAF Major General Mahmoud Nasr reportedly said recently that the military was prepared to fight for control of its assets and that, "We have been building them for 33 years and we won't give them to anyone else to destroy."

One retired military officer has sought to downplay the scale of these investments and claimed they were small interests that relate to clubs, entertainment and supplies for the military itself.

Others believe that the financial interests are huge and not only play a crucial role within Egypt but also involve huge off-shore investments in companies and assets located around the world.

They point to the fact that the military had the resources on hand to provide a loan of $1 billion to the Egyptian government just six months ago.

The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi has claimed victory against the military-backed candidate Ahmed Shafiq in the final round of the presidential election.

This sets the scene for ongoing tension between the elected president, a parliament dominated by Islamists and an unelected military council intent on protecting its extensive interests.

A further complication occurred in the days before the presidential election when the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the election of one third of parliamentarians was invalid and dissolved the parliament.

The SCAF response to that ruling was to assume for itself all legislative powers.

The response from the Muslim Brotherhood to the ruling was ominous, with a statement that Egypt faced " … very difficult days that might be more dangerous than the last days of Mubarak's rule. All the democratic gains of the revolution could be wiped out and overturned with the handing of power to one of the symbols of the previous era."

At this point in the transition from Mubarak's rule, the military remains firmly in control and the Islamist parties lack the capacity to directly challenge the military in the short term.

The concern is that support for more radical ideas will grow among the broader population as the Egyptian economy continues to struggle.

Tourism is one of the bedrocks of the Egyptian economy but visitor numbers plummeted in the wake of the uprisings and ongoing uncertainty has deterred many tourists.

There has also been an increase in violence and kidnappings in the Sinai Peninsula, which is home to numerous resorts and holiday locations.

Poverty and lack of employment were two of the motivating factors behind the millions of people who took to the streets during the 18 days of protests that toppled Mubarak.

The moderate individuals and groups who played an important role at that time have failed to galvanise into a cohesive political force and that vacuum has been filled by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the al-Noor party of the more radical Salafists.

These parties are unlikely to stand idle while the military refuses to hand over power to a civilian parliament and president.

While they lack the military's weapons, they have the ability to mobilise large numbers of people.

If an eventual confrontation takes place, as seems increasingly likely, the military will have to decide the extent of the defence of its interests.

That could mean caving into the demands of protestors and handing over power or it may come to the point when they turn on their own people.

A powerful Egyptian military dominated by radical Islamists would be cause for enormous strategic concern.

Yet a situation such as that underway in Syria is unthinkable.

As the Muslim Brotherhood warned, Egypt faces difficult and dangerous times.

The implications are global.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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