Flotation device for premier's sinking party

The floods sweeping Queensland may be a disaster for many in the state and the local economy, but they have possibly saved Premier Anna Bligh and Labor's more than 22-year hold on state government.

Bligh took over from Peter Beattie in late 2007. Since winning the March 2009 election with a reduced majority, albeit of over 30 seats, it has all been downhill.

The post-election surprise announcement about the budget deficit and the privatisation of state government enterprises such as Queensland Rail quickly disillusioned voters who felt they had been lied to during the campaign.

Added to this, Bligh has had to bear the consequences of some of the policies of her predecessor. The 2007 amalgamation of local government continues to hurt. So too did the cost of Queensland's drought-proofing. The recent jailing of former Beattie health minister Gordon Nuttall for corruption, for taking a bribe - something that no Nationals minister faced even after the 1989 Fitzgerald inquiry - has not helped.

And, speaking of Fitzgerald, the former anti-corruption commissioner in June 2009 gave a scathing assessment of the Queensland government in relation to progress in implementing his reform recommendations. This and scandals concerning former Labor ministers and staffers' lobbying efforts and business positions prompted Bligh to hastily appoint a review of integrity and accountability.

Meanwhile, ongoing problems relating to the conduct of Queensland police - especially, but not only, in relation to the death in custody of an Aborigine on Palm Island - further tarnished perceptions of the government. Everywhere, Bligh was on the back foot, reacting rather than setting the agenda, defending rather than initiating, and coping rather than striving.

Just before the floods peaked, opinion polls were suggesting that the condition of Bligh's leadership and the government was terminal. Her rating as leader had fallen, with 67 per cent dissatisfied, and Labor's primary vote had dwindled to an appalling 26 per cent.

The recent floods have refloated Bligh and Labor.

Bligh's performance during the recent crisis has been measured, commanding and dignified. Her grasp of the detail and her openness in communications has been outstanding. Emotion has been kept in check; we want leaders to lead, not to play victim.

Moreover, the floods have left the Liberal National Party opposition, which thought it had to do nothing to walk into office, high and dry.

During crises, it is governments that make the decisions, set the agenda and dominate the media. Also, in a crisis leaders can act as if all their actions are in the public interest, no politics is involved. This goes down well with voters who find the adversarial point-scoring of party politics annoying at the best of times.

Oppositions can only buy into a crisis if there are real problems, and even then they must be careful not to appear to be playing politics in their criticisms. Unless they are invited into the crisis management process by the government, oppositions are sidelined.

Significantly, Bligh has not extended the hand of bipartisanship to Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek. There have been no joint press briefings, no sharing of government planes, no consultation on policy announcements.

"Captain" Bligh is in charge and that is the way it is going to be. It is in the Queensland tradition of strong partisanship, strong leadership. Former National Party premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen would have approved.

Reinforcing her renewed vigour, Bligh is also looking ahead. She knows this is her big opportunity. The floods may have saved her from being poleaxed by her own party, but she has to do more to save her premiership and the Labor Party from the political annihilation presaged by the polls.

Bligh is on to it.

She has appointed a commission of inquiry just as there were beginning to be rumblings about this. Moreover, the commission has a well-balanced membership of legal knowledge, police experience and outside expertise about water issues. Its terms of reference and processes are both review oriented and future focused. Not only will it look at the effectiveness of current arrangements in responding to the crisis, but it will also report on potential future problems (read voter complaints) about compensation and insurance. Significantly, the commission had been asked to provide an interim report by August, before the next wet season.

Start thinking early election, with Bligh arguing for a mandate to reconstruct Queensland, based on the commission's interim report and a tough new state budget due about June.

And in the lead-up to the interim report and the budget, it is Bligh and her ministers who will be out and about, seeing, caring, leading, governing and, of course, spending, and spending legitimately, in the eyes of most, to help people through this crisis: a perfect scenario for a Labor government.

So, where does this leave the LNP opposition? On the political sandbank with no real role in the post-crisis clean-up, in policy development or in proposing viable solutions that do not seem like harping complaints.

However, many things can go wrong for Bligh. Success in managing a crisis is not always sustained, as former Victorian Labor premier John Brumby found. The commission of inquiry may find that the state government could have addressed certain issues relating to infrastructure and planning before the floods. The issue of the earlier release of water from the Wivenhoe Dam, built after the 1974 floods to minimise damage from a recurrence, could become a problem. And given that Labor administrations have governed Queensland almost uninterrupted since 1989, it may be hard to avoid blame on these issues.

Local government, which has lost many of its powers over water, may bite back.

Nevertheless, Bligh now has an opportunity to relaunch her premiership and give Queensland Labor a new mission. She can do it, but it will take considerable skill, focus and delivery of policy to maintain the present momentum.