Ten things about China and climate change

8. Water shortage and pollution are more important to the PRC, and most of the world, than greenhouse gases. Nearly two-thirds of Chinese cities, plus over 200 million rural residents, face water shortages. At the end of 2008, close to half of key river and waterway sections were classified as being so polluted that they were unsuitable for human contact and, in some cases, even irrigation.

In the absence of unprecedented efforts, the outlook on water is grim - and such efforts will claim a sizable fraction of resources devoted to environmental projects. Attempting to reduce carbon emissions would require a costly diversion from more pressing ecologic concerns.

9. When troublesome for the Communist Party, Chinese statistics are altered or censored. Political statistics are censored (e g the size and nature of Tibetan riots), economic statistics are altered (e.g., Chinese provinces claim every year to grow faster than the national "average"), and environmental statistics are censored (e.g. suppression of foreign reports in favor of official accounts). Any environmental agreement that permits the PRC to report its own progress is not worth the tree chopped down to print it.

10. The topic of China makes it clear that some who demand strong US action do not believe their own words concerning climate change. Those who say no action can be meaningful unless the PRC agrees to internationally monitored and enforced, painfully tight emissions caps are serious. Those mumbling about historical obligations, "special responsibilities" of developed countries, and the like may be serious about something, but it is not the curtailing of greenhouse gases.

Implications

Absent a technological breakthrough, the only way to contain greenhouse gases is to drastically alter Chinese coal use. The inexorable numbers make it clear that all else is merely a distraction. This has direct implications for American policy, in particular with respect to current global negotiations.

• Unilateral American action to contain the level of greenhouse gases is essentially useless. Even if the US is willing to pay the economic costs, unilateral American action will not work.
• Because greenhouse gases cannot be contained without restrictions on China that Beijing will find very difficult to fulfill, any agreement must feature international monitoring and a meaningful enforcement mechanism.
• If any proposal along these lines turns out to be diplomatically feasible, it should then be evaluated for effects on American economy and sovereignty.
• If greenhouse gas emissions are to be treated as a serious threat, research must be concentrated almost exclusively on carbon capture and technology aimed to cut emissions from coal, not turned into a green energy boondoggle.
• If greenhouse gas emissions continue to be downgraded as a priority, the US should still work to increase cooperation with the PRC on a range of environmental and energy issues, such as improving water-saving and water-treatment technology.

With Copenhagen looming, the US must be realistic about carbon emissions and China.