Two systems, one global interest - understanding China

Scant consideration is given to academic study of the complexities of a China in transition. Over the week, conferences - serendipitously timed - were held in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. The Chinese Studies Association of Australia held its annual conference in Sydney.  The University of Melbourne held an international conference to advance understanding of an emerging China 60 years after the Great Leap Forward. Keynote speaker Professor Li Cheng from the Brookings Institution in Washington shared his time commuting between Melbourne and Canberra, for a workshop at the ANU.

Media interest was limited to what the experts thought of the Stern Hu diplomatic impasse, when a little time spent on the academic deliberations might have given media a comprehensive picture of what Rudd reminds Australians are the complexities of China.
Li drew a capacity 180 participants at a seminar at Asialink, a centre of the University of Melbourne. "Next generation of the Chinese leadership: what does the future hold?" exploded the myth of the monolithic one-party state.

"One party, two coalitions" best describes the reality, Li suggests, paraphrasing reformer Deng Xiaoping's "One country, two systems" proposition of the 1980s for the reunification of China, embracing Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

The numerically balanced elitist princelings in the politburo on the one hand, and the "populist" faction of Hu Jintao on the other hand, obscure reading of the tea leaves, but Li is optimistic of China's transition to democracy "in 10-15 years".

Pradeep Taneja, China specialist at the University of Melbourne, shares Li's optimism. The encouragement of the international community is imperative, both argue. "Being pessimistic is not an option," says Taneja. "We cannot afford to see China fail."

So what is the West to do, given the "current challenges" (read Stern Hu), the question came from the floor.

Li's response was instantaneous. And succinct: "Humility." He elaborates: "Do not demonise the Chinese political system (in transition) ... they are working very hard at it."

What are the prospects for this "humility" in Australia, New Sunday Times put the question to Andrew Godwin, associate director, Asian commercial law, at the University of Melbourne's Asian Law Centre. "There is a view of China based on issues that China does not live up to our expectations," says Godwin, who practised commercial law in Shanghai from 1996 to 2006. "This is largely to do with a lack of information, which encourages people to jump to conclusions."

Is there a vacuum in leadership, then, from a prime minister who majored in Chinese studies at university?

For Godwin, it's too early to tell.

"Rudd is too much of a diplomat," says Professor Stephanie Donald, president of the Chinese Studies Association of Australia. "He needs to strike a balance with political leadership. But picking up the phone won't do it (for Stern Hu); the legal process will happen."

Donald suspects Rudd is well served in advice that he takes on China.