China's ambitious growth plans unsustainable

China's population growth already exceeds projections and the official growth rate of 19 million a year by 2012 ("official normal rate") already appears unreliable.

The official population peak of 1.5 billion in 2033 also appears obsolete.

Energy consumption

While construction related emissions are extensive, of real concern is the level of the post-occupation emissions.

Such massive urban expansion will trigger a major increase in per capita energy consumption, not just from the huge numbers but two additional key factors:

1. The first becomes apparent when comparing per capita rural and urban energy use. Rural users consume only 25 per cent that of their urban counterparts. An additional 450 million, consuming 75 per cent more than their original usage, translates into a substantial per capita energy demand.
2. The second becomes more apparent when taking into account that China's buildings are amongst the world's worst in energy efficiency.

Constructing accommodation and supporting infrastructure for a relocated population the size of Beijing every year translates into yet another massive spike in energy consumption.

The building inefficiency factor alone will substantially contribute to wasteful energy generation and unnecessary CO2 emissions.

What are foreign and what are domestic related emissions

So we return to the subject of emissions and apportionment for foreign consumers and domestic consumption.

The scale of China's expansion programs is immense by any standards. It will result in huge emission increases from spiking urban related energy demand and inefficiencies as well as that from the additional industrial capacity in which the new urbanites work.

This runs in parallel with spiking steel and cement demand to build coal-fired power stations, nuclear stations, hydro dam construction, wind power generators, and towers, railways, oil and gas pipelines and as early as 2011, the world's biggest shipbuilding yard and overall global shipbuilding capacity.

The industrial related emissions relate not only to domestic and foreign demand.

China has major commitments in supplying its steel, cement, manufactured products, armaments, and Chinese labour to many developing countries for infrastructure and resource development from which China earns considerable foreign exchange. China provides its client states with substantial loans to finance such projects receiving payment in a variety of means.