China's ambitious growth plans unsustainable

Also in progress is the world's largest coal-fired power generation expansion program, and it is this that brings the implications of China's goals and related CO2 emissions into sharp focus.

In 2005, Beijing approved construction of 550 new coal-fired power stations between 2006 and 2010 each of 1GW capacity.

That is the equivalent of one base load coal-fired power station every 10 days. This achievement is possible since these plants incorporate standard old technology boiler/turbine/generator packages manufactured across China. They are cheap to build, and it is easier and cheaper to train staff for old style plants instead of the more expensive systems with efficient emission control systems.

The program itself is energy and emission intensive because of the tonnages of steel and cement for each plant plus related railways and rolling stock.

Alternatives future input

Appearing impressive by current world standards in terms of installations, it is insignificant when put in context of China's current and planned generating capacity, and especially with that of coal.

Despite the highly promoted major input by alternatives, hydro and nuclear, their combined contribution will be less than 17 per cent total demand because of the eventual massive expansion in coal stations.

Urbanisation expansion

In June 2007, Beijing announced a new urbanisation program involving "newly developed urban centres". The goal is to improve living conditions and provide employment opportunities for the rural sector and involves the relocation of 450 million rural residents between 2000 and 2030. That is about 15 million people each year and excludes natural urban population growth.

Constructing these "urban centres" is the equivalent of constructing a city bigger than Beijing every year until 2030.

Early growth projections forecast 221 Chinese cities by 2025 with populations of 1 million or more. That number is now obsolete. China is considering the development of 15 super cities with populations of 25 million. Also under consideration is development of 11 clusters of cities with combined populations of more than 60 million. China's statistics fail to classify a large number of its "towns" are already well beyond that status and should be classified as cities.

Construction of the dormitory component of the "urban centres" is not the only factor to take into account. The associated necessary urban and industrial infrastructure to service, and provide employment for these 450 million is a massive energy consumer and requires accountability.

The 67 per cent urbanisation target by 2030 in the 11th Five-Year Plan assumes a population estimated to exceed only 1.4 billion.