Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

China's ambitious growth plans unsustainable

By Arthur Thomas - posted Friday, 12 June 2009


In the pre Bonn and Copenhagen talks, China is demanding developed nations cut their CO2 emissions by 40 per cent.

While Lord Stern's recent comments on a potential deadlock may be valid, he failed to take into account the issue of dealing with the end users and beneficiaries of the products contributing to CO2 emissions.

How do we define these and apportion the cost?

Advertisement

Outsourced emissions

These originate from outsourced or relocated manufacturing operations in foreign countries designed to exploit cheap labour, poor working conditions, lax environmental safeguards, and various incentives. Politics and industry interpret it as a positive means of driving strong consumer economies with affordable products and growing the economies of developing nations.

While this may seem a fair and reasonable argument, there is a need to consider balancing the considerable benefits derived by the host nation, the outsourcing corporation and the consumer against the related CO2 emission content from the raw materials, manufacturing process, and transportation.

This is not a simple one-way street where the consumer carries the full cost of emission cuts to reduce CO2. Such a basic concept lacks balance and ignores key issues.

A country that hosts outsourcing manufacturing facilities also consumes those goods. The same country also produces a vast array of goods for domestic consumption with a high CO2 related content as well as producing the energy and processing the raw materials used in the goods. It is also responsible for the emissions.

That same country is also a major beneficiary, both directly and indirectly.

If considering carbon taxes or caps as a remedy to reduce global warming, then apportionment must include multiple factors.

Advertisement

Let us consider China as an example.

China's rewards

China's demand for the 40 per cent CO2 cuts by developed nations naturally excludes China, claiming developing nation status.

In presenting its case, China chooses to ignore the handsome rewards and benefits that it has gained. It claims that as its undeniable right. These range from massive foreign direct investment and technological advancement. This in turn created immense employment opportunities from the factory floor upwards, including the full spectrum of employment, skills bases, and cutting-edge technology.

There are also the obvious and substantial benefits of foreign exchange earnings, business travel, tourism, and expansion of China's shipping, aviation, service, and new alternative energy industries. There is also the substantial income derived from various government charges.

China's ability to stage the spectacular 2008 Olympics, construct many of the world’s more recent futuristic and grand projects, and to accumulate massive foreign exchange reserves are clear evidence of the massive extent of the rewards; and it brings in to question the “developing nation” status.

Without this foreign direct investment, strategic input, and co-operation, China would still be back in the 1970s, but emitting less CO2.

An additional factor to take into account is China's ability to produce cheap goods, other than cheap labour.

Despite being fully aware of the implications of failing to protect the environment, China has been reckless in failing to enforce legislation across the board to control gaseous, liquid, and solid waste from its industries. This has been deliberate policy so as to remain competitive in export markets.

Are export consumer goods the major CO2 contributer?

To lay the blame of China's global CO2 emission contribution solely on consumer exports fails to acknowledge the huge CO2 content in China's own massive domestic energy consumption, industrial emissions, and consumer market demand.

While demand from China's domestic consumer base is relatively low in respect to its population, the level of government infrastructure and industrial related growth is the highest in the world, and foreign consumer demand is only one contributor to China's huge level of CO2 emissions.

China's planned growth commitments

China has been open and honest in proclaiming its plans for industrial and urban expansion which are on an unprecedented scale, and key to its goal of becoming the "world's factory".

To comprehend the implications of this expansion requires a clear understanding of China's vision for the future, clearly defined in Five-Year Plans and supplemental programs including the 2008 stimulus package.

This policy is not just to meet perceived global consumer demand, but more to boost China's own manufacturing base with ongoing substantial foreign exchange earnings.

Two key policies are central to China's future unprecedented CO2 emissions:

  • the world's biggest power generation expansion program; and
  • the world's biggest urbanisation expansion program.

Power generation expansion

This comprises the four sectors of alternatives, nuclear, hydro and coal.

Wind power

China's leadership in wind power is the result of considerable access to technological advances and processes via joint ventures with world leading manufacturers in China in which China demands considerable local content. The manufacturing content and processes are all energy intensive.

Hydro

The high profile green contributor that includes the Three Gorges Dam and very large dams cascades along the main channels and tributaries of China's Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Red and Nu rivers.

Many projects, completed, under construction and in the planning stages are facing the reality of serious environmental and socio-economic consequences. Downstream effects on trans-national rivers are beginning to emerge and have the capacity to sour neighbour relations.

Construction is energy intensive in respect to steel, cement, and explosive production, and on site works.

Nuclear

China is progressing with the world's largest nuclear power expansion program that includes 40 operating nuclear plants by 2020. Despite the lead times on reactor construction, it is highly unlikely to achieve its goal in this time frame but is proceeding at fastest possible speed.

Like alternative energy, China has benefited substantially from foreign technology and joint ventures that require 70 per cent local manufactured content in China's nuclear reactors. The manufacturing processes and content are all energy intensive.

Coal

Coal provides more than 70 per cent of China's base-load power generation. It is fast tracking development of domestic and neighbouring coal supply, serviced by high capacity dedicated rail networks in the north, central, and west.

Also in progress is the world's largest coal-fired power generation expansion program, and it is this that brings the implications of China's goals and related CO2 emissions into sharp focus.

In 2005, Beijing approved construction of 550 new coal-fired power stations between 2006 and 2010 each of 1GW capacity.

That is the equivalent of one base load coal-fired power station every 10 days. This achievement is possible since these plants incorporate standard old technology boiler/turbine/generator packages manufactured across China. They are cheap to build, and it is easier and cheaper to train staff for old style plants instead of the more expensive systems with efficient emission control systems.

The program itself is energy and emission intensive because of the tonnages of steel and cement for each plant plus related railways and rolling stock.

Alternatives future input

Appearing impressive by current world standards in terms of installations, it is insignificant when put in context of China's current and planned generating capacity, and especially with that of coal.

Despite the highly promoted major input by alternatives, hydro and nuclear, their combined contribution will be less than 17 per cent total demand because of the eventual massive expansion in coal stations.

Urbanisation expansion

In June 2007, Beijing announced a new urbanisation program involving "newly developed urban centres". The goal is to improve living conditions and provide employment opportunities for the rural sector and involves the relocation of 450 million rural residents between 2000 and 2030. That is about 15 million people each year and excludes natural urban population growth.

Constructing these "urban centres" is the equivalent of constructing a city bigger than Beijing every year until 2030.

Early growth projections forecast 221 Chinese cities by 2025 with populations of 1 million or more. That number is now obsolete. China is considering the development of 15 super cities with populations of 25 million. Also under consideration is development of 11 clusters of cities with combined populations of more than 60 million. China's statistics fail to classify a large number of its "towns" are already well beyond that status and should be classified as cities.

Construction of the dormitory component of the "urban centres" is not the only factor to take into account. The associated necessary urban and industrial infrastructure to service, and provide employment for these 450 million is a massive energy consumer and requires accountability.

The 67 per cent urbanisation target by 2030 in the 11th Five-Year Plan assumes a population estimated to exceed only 1.4 billion.

China's population growth already exceeds projections and the official growth rate of 19 million a year by 2012 ("official normal rate") already appears unreliable.

The official population peak of 1.5 billion in 2033 also appears obsolete.

Energy consumption

While construction related emissions are extensive, of real concern is the level of the post-occupation emissions.

Such massive urban expansion will trigger a major increase in per capita energy consumption, not just from the huge numbers but two additional key factors:

  1. The first becomes apparent when comparing per capita rural and urban energy use. Rural users consume only 25 per cent that of their urban counterparts. An additional 450 million, consuming 75 per cent more than their original usage, translates into a substantial per capita energy demand.
  2. The second becomes more apparent when taking into account that China's buildings are amongst the world's worst in energy efficiency.

Constructing accommodation and supporting infrastructure for a relocated population the size of Beijing every year translates into yet another massive spike in energy consumption.

The building inefficiency factor alone will substantially contribute to wasteful energy generation and unnecessary CO2 emissions.

What are foreign and what are domestic related emissions

So we return to the subject of emissions and apportionment for foreign consumers and domestic consumption.

The scale of China's expansion programs is immense by any standards. It will result in huge emission increases from spiking urban related energy demand and inefficiencies as well as that from the additional industrial capacity in which the new urbanites work.

This runs in parallel with spiking steel and cement demand to build coal-fired power stations, nuclear stations, hydro dam construction, wind power generators, and towers, railways, oil and gas pipelines and as early as 2011, the world's biggest shipbuilding yard and overall global shipbuilding capacity.

The industrial related emissions relate not only to domestic and foreign demand.

China has major commitments in supplying its steel, cement, manufactured products, armaments, and Chinese labour to many developing countries for infrastructure and resource development from which China earns considerable foreign exchange. China provides its client states with substantial loans to finance such projects receiving payment in a variety of means.

If we are to consider an effective and fair formula to cut global emissions, then a truly level playing field based on several criteria is crucial.

A realistic formula will need to address the profits and gains made not only by corporations, but the producing countries own consumption and taking into consideration emission management that fails sustainable global benchmark standards.

Any solution must link emission related consumption and emission related production.

One cannot ignore the fact that the twin demons of global warming and global economic crisis are linked.

China and the future global economy

Regardless of the extent of cuts made by others, China's urbanisation and power generation expansion plans alone will not only counter that effect, it will substantially increase global warming.

It is now a matter of survival for several governments around the world as their populations demand domestic economic management capable of providing jobs and a liveable environment for future generations.

It is time to determine if the solution lies in maintaining corporate profits or constructing a sustainable blend of national growth within a new less ambitious but sustainable global economic model.

The global community needs to address a number of key questions:

  1. Can China lead it out of the recession?
  2. What options are available without China's recovery?
  3. Can planet Earth survive China's massive grand expansion plans?

Is the global community capable of co-operating and adjusting to a lesser ambitious and more modest growth cycle so that planet earth can provide a liveable environment to sustain the future generations?


Stop Climate Change Today (sponsored link).


  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. ...
  6. 5
  7. 6
  8. 7
  9. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

6 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Arthur Thomas is retired. He has extensive experience in the old Soviet, the new Russia, China, Central Asia and South East Asia.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Arthur Thomas

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Article Tools
Comment 6 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy