The West’s decline? I don’t think so

Further, do either China, India or Russia have the cultural or ideological appeal to become a true superpower? I doubt it. While their rich citizens emulate the excesses of Western society by extensively purchasing famous global brands, their societies are light years away from becoming effective pluralistic societies with respect for any individual or group to express ideas that can help challenge the status quo.

What will continue to enhance Western power is how its nations use their resources to help others and influence the world.

This will include ongoing (and perhaps greater) assistance to help poorer nations which often fall into civil disarray: a reality that only hastens the prospect of conflict or rise of religious doctrines.

At present, China is seeking to increase its international influence through aid to many poorer nations: a strategy often tied to its desire for resources, as seen by most aid going into infrastructure (roads, ports and bridges). Unlike Western loans through the World Bank which usually comes with conditions for environmental standards or community resettlement, Chinese aid does not carry penalties for corruption (Jane Perlez, New York Times, September 18, 2006).

And if Western aid was to wane, the consequences of new trends will hardly enhance humanity’s plight in the longer term. Already Middle Eastern countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are seeking to secure future food supplies by buying land in poorer nations with produce to be shipped directly to the owners (George Monbiot, The Guardian, August 26 2008).

Though Bell highlights the decline of the US, and the different policies of London, Paris and Berlin, the example of the EU demonstrates how resources are used to encourage policy change and ensure greater equity between member nations. With more than 35 per cent of the Union’s budget going to such areas (EUR 213 billion in 2000-06), such assistance had helped increase the GDP of Portugal by 3.5 per cent in Portugal and Greece 2.4 per cent.

In a world of cultural differences, there is no doubt that co-operation and generosity is more extensive between like-minded nations. Nothing surprising about that. For instance, Turkey’s bid for EU membership is complicated by its lack of reform progress, laws infringing freedom of speech, refusal to acknowledge the Armenian genocide, and concern by many European societies about their large Muslim minorities.

And the West may have to make difficult decisions in the future, hopefully with a UN mandate than without, although it should carefully consider policy consequences. For instance, the decision of a few nations to invade Iraq now has to contend with a majority Shia population (about 60 per cent of Iraq’s population) with closer ties to Iran, a far more dangerous enemy to the US.

The issues facing humanity today are enormous, perhaps unprecedented, and it is difficult to predict just what will happen.

Western societies, with their democratic traditions, will place enormous pressure on their governments to uphold domestic needs first.

And just how Western nations balance domestic and international needs, with both its economic and environmental dimensions, will probably determine the level of resentment to Western nations in coming decades.

But I, for one, am still putting my faith in pluralistic Western democracies to lead the way. The US may be declining, although its ability to renew itself should not be underestimated, but the EU alone (along with other Western nations) will long remain a force to be reckoned with.