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The West’s decline? I don’t think so

By Chris Lewis - posted Tuesday, 23 December 2008


And how will the rise of China offer the world greater hope that income disparity and environmental degradation will be better addressed? Already, China has most of the world’s polluted cities, despite committing to a significant level of renewable energy; and has a level of income disparity even more obscene than most Western nations, despite having a communist party supposedly representing all.

Bell suggests that “the great powers must treat each other as if they were equals, even though they are not quite that in reality, and internal political change must be allowed time to do its work”, but at what expense to Western nations?

In truth, China is a threat to Western nations as seen by its improving economic prowess, and its rapidly developing space program, including an anti-satellite weapon in 2007. A US Congress panel has also noted that China aggressively pursues cyber warfare as shown by the number of Chinese computer attacks, about 43,880 during 2007, on some five million US government offices, defence companies and businesses (The Guardian November 20, 2008).

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Tougher times for Western nations will indeed test their willingness to promote freer trade as the most appropriate concept for promoting peace and prosperity among competitive nations. The US federal budget deficit has already reached $402 billion in the first two months of the fiscal year (October and November), while 43 of 50 US states are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this year and/or next year (CNNMoney.com December 10, 2008).

Quite simply, the US will find it even harder to balance its desire to provide international military and economy security with its own domestic need to provide a decent public social welfare system. It is a difficulty that is often downplayed by critics of the US, and an aspect which may force Western nations to step up and fill any security void.

As the last few decades indicate, Western nations were happy to boost their domestic growth by a greater reliance upon services, with China exporting cheap manufacturing goods and India helping to lower some service costs with its large pool of cheap English-speaking labour.

But it is always difficult for a number of powerful nations with different cultural traditions to easily live alongside each other, just as it is unrealistic to assume that the beautiful messages of various religions would never become politicised.

However, this article should not be viewed as more doom and gloom.

History shows that divisive issues can be overcome: ideas do matter rather than just a mere struggle for resources. After all, the thousands of human societies that once existed have evolved into 200 or so nations today.

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Certainly, as Bell noted, the second half of the 20th century did see a “hothouse growth of new and ambitious norms (or proposed norms) for the society of states” which have proven difficult to achieve. This included a campaign urging a ban on the killing of whales for food; the abolition of capital punishment; and the need for intervention to uphold “human security” rather than just focus on “national security” - as seen by the West’s attack on Serbia when Muslim Kosovars were exiled from their long-established home of Kosovo.

One has only to note the failure of the West to intervene in Sudan to help the persecuted people of Darfur, or the failure to remove the disgraceful government of Zimbabwe, to realise that any ambition to enforce human rights will probably never be realised.

However, there is enough opportunities to allow the West to maintain influence, even allowing for a declining US. This is because China, India and Russia are unlikely to forge a close alliance to oppose the West as each has vastly different cultural traditions and foreign policy strategies.

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About the Author

Chris Lewis, who completed a First Class Honours degree and PhD (Commonwealth scholarship) at Monash University, has an interest in all economic, social and environmental issues, but believes that the struggle for the ‘right’ policy mix remains an elusive goal in such a complex and competitive world.

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