Turkey struggles against the changing times

Fighting the branches of your problem is fruitless, without addressing its root.

Authorisation of Military Action

On 17th October 2007, the Turkish parliament passed a controversial motion that effectively allows the Turkish military a year’s pass to launch incursions into Northern Iraq as it sees fit under the pretext of preserving national security and eradicating the long-standing PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) threat emanating from the Qandil Mountains of the Kurdistan region.

In defiance of strong objections from Iraq, the US, NATO, EU and a plethora of major states, Turkey approved the bill. With a huge occupation force in the shape of the US Army still on the ground, this hardly provides a positive image of Iraqi sovereignty and may well set a benchmark for future invasions by neighbours.

Turkey’s battle with the PKK is not new. In fact Turkey has been waging war on the PKK for 28 years in the impoverished and largely neglected lands of South Eastern Turkey. This war reached a peak in the mid-1990’s culminating in a series of large cross-border campaigns by the Turkish military to oust rebel bases across the porous borders.

Clearly, these campaigns did no significant damage to the PKK, nor did they eradicate their threat, even as those campaigns were supported by some Iraqi Kurdish parties at the time. Five years of unilateral truce by the PKK following the arrest of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan, resulted in some peace and a motion to readdress its adverse international image.  But the PKK made very little political gains with a Turkish government persistent in its refusal to negotiate with their ‘terrorist’ arch-nemesis or to issue amnesty.

Feeling lost and weary after the trial of their revered leader, the influence and power of the PKK steadily dropped. However, the onset of the Iraqi liberation in 2003 and the new found prominence and political stature of the Iraqi Kurds has served to embolden the PKK and has reignited their passion for making another stand against the Turkish regime.

Clearly this time, the PKK has had more political coverage and broad media attention than ever before. The status of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is now enshrined in the Iraqi Constitution and widely recognised by major global powers. Arguably, the long standing rivalry with the PKK became second nature to a Turkish state that long denied its substantial Kurdish population’s cultural and linguistic rights Now, to its horror it is witnessing a strong Kurdish national renaissance a stone’s throw across the border.

Iraqi-Kurds – The Real Turkish Danger

It is likely that with the parliamentary approval of military incursions valid for one-year, this will give the Turkish state time to manoeuvre and watch the KRG closely with an upcoming decisive year that will determine the future of Iraq.  The ideal scenario for Turkey would be to maintain a long-term foothold and influence over Northern Iraq, rather than attack at will.

Under a period of self-rule, the Iraqi Kurds have grown from strength to strength.  They have witnessed an economic boom,  enhanced status as key strategic allies to the US administration, and are widely acknowledged as the only island of peace and prosperity in the mess that is Iraq. Whilst Kurdish confidence has reached alarming new heights for the Turkish state, which as of today still refuses to recognise the Kurdish administration, many of the red-lines set by the Turkish government have long passed with the Iraqi Kurds hungry and determined to bolster their status and political gains further.

In the year officially set for a referendum on the status of oil-rich Kirkuk, frequent Turkish calls for the abandonment of such a momentous milestone have gone unheard. Turkey has lobbied the Iraqi government extensively to dismiss the referendum out-of-hand or at least delay it indefinitely. This has only increased Kurdish determination, and with the knowledge that they are almost certain to be victors in any vote, they have pressed on without fear.

Undoubtedly, Turkey and their surrounding neighbours fear that if Kurdish aspirations are unchecked, it may create an unstoppable ripple affect for the millions of Kurds inhabiting those countries.

Although the PKK issue has acted as the focal point in channelling Turkish fears, the presence of an estimated 3,000 rebels in the rugged mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan is clearly a side issue to the greater concerns of the ramifications of the potential destabilisating effect of 15 million Turkish Kurds.

Prospects of a Full-Scale Invasion

Clearly, launching any military incursion into Iraq may well backfire. The PKK rebels will disperse into Kurdish towns and villages and even major air raids may be ineffective. A highly unpopular Turkish invasion would only increase support and sympathy for the PKK amongst Iraqi Kurds.

Any major incursion deep into KRG territory may induce direct confrontation with the Kurdish Peshermegra forces, which is likely to only deepen the issue and increase the risk of an all out Turkish-Kurdish war.

As a result of these factors, a full-scale invasion is unlikely and may prove more costly than the limited gains it may provide. Alienating Kurdish populations on either side of the border who heavily rely on one another for billion of dollars worth of trade is political and economical suicide. This motion for the time being at least, is mere sabre-rattling.. It is designed to further pressure the US and Iraqi governments into action and warn the Iraqi Kurds of the dangers of defiance.

Changing Political Climate

Turkey has long accused the US administration of not doing enough to tackle the PKK issue and has called on the Iraqi government to take action.

However, the key problem with any US action to deal with the PKK is the potential to undermine their strong relationship with the Iraqi Kurds and destabilise the only stable part of Iraq. Noticeably, for a Turkey suffering from a dramatic decline of their traditional closeness with the US, this is seen as preferential treatment of the Kurds and double standards in the fight against terrorism.

The occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan by US forces and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon last year set a dangerous precedent for super-powers combating terrorism and threats against national security. Turkey feels it is no exception to the rule and only wider strategic and political implications stopped it from invading Iraq in 2003 to dispel Kurdish ambitions.

However, events in the last year and more recently have irked Turkey beyond care of the repercussions of their actions. Turkey introduced mild reforms and more cultural tolerance of their Kurdish minority under EU accession talks. But despite what it perceived as more than a gesture of goodwill, the reforms on the back of EU pressure did not continue apace. Talks have all but stalled and the divide has only deepened with major reservations from key European nations over the potential influx of millions of largely impoverished Muslims into their Christian super club.

Turkey, in its gradual changing political stance and its increasing ties with the controversial governments in Syria and Iran, has seemingly all but given up the idea of an imminent entry into the European Union and has instead turned its attention to its more immediate concerns. Turkish public opinion has hardly helped; a strong sense of nationalism has kicked in since the Iraqi Kurdish defiance, frequent PKK attacks and the fast declining popularity of the US in the country.

Turkish-US Ties Under Strain

Whilst the frequent failed promises by the US administration to deal with the PKK hardly helped, two events that arguably swayed Turkish political opinion and deep-rooted anxiety into overdrive.  Firstly, their disappointment over a US Senate motion, referred to as the Biden-Brownback amendment, to push through the break-up of Iraq into three federal entities; and secondly, their downright anger over the passing of a non-binding resolution by the US House Foreign Affairs Committee to officially recognise the Armenian massacre between 1915-1923 under Ottoman rule as genocide.

This created uproar in public, political and military circles alike, with Turkey swiftly condemning the resolution and warning President Bush of the massive ramifications that this would have in their relationship and their logistical support of US troops in Iraq, if it was formally passed.

The changing face of the political and strategic makeup of the Middle East has rocked Turkey’s once unbreakable alliance with the US, which reached its a peak at the time of the Cold War. Now, the US has greater priorities and faces its gravest danger in the form of terrorism. The global aspects and wider implications of their foreign policies are more important than any relationship with a single country.

Iraqi Kurds By-Passed

The region and the international community are now watching Turkey’s next steps closely. What is clear is that any hasty or controversial adventure by Turkey that goes beyond the remit of a limited incursion may well result in a major backlash.

The Iraqi Kurds fully appreciate that for their long-term prosperity and survival they must cooperate very closely with Turkey. However, even they are feeling increasingly undermined by the actions of regional powers and the insistence of Turkey in by-passing them in negotiations with the Iraqi government.

A recently signed security deal between Iraq and Turkey by-passed the Iraqi Kurds, with the Baghdad government insistent that all elements of national foreign policy must be channelled through them.

Despite the rhetoric of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki however, there is nothing that Baghdad can do in the Kurdish region. There is no Iraqi Army in Iraqi Kurdistan and no sense of bending backwards to fight their ethnic brethren to satisfy the vain nationalist  desires of a neighbouring country who even refuses to acknowledge them as a credible entity.

PKK - A Terrorist Issue or a Kurdish Problem

It is ironic that Turkey sees the PKK as a terrorist threat and not as a Kurdish problem.

The PKK is simply the fruit from the seeds of problems that were sown decades previously in the aftermath of World War One. Unless the root of these problems are addressed, the branches may be cut but they will only grow back at a more vicious rate. If the PKK as an organisation could, hypothetically, be eradicated altogether, there is no guarantee that another Kurdish off-shoot will not arise by next year.

It is time for the Turkish regime to stop this impractical game and recognise the existence of the Iraqi Kurdish administration. They can not preserve their stability without the help of the Iraqi Kurds and the Iraqi Kurds are unable to survive without Turkish help.

The Need for a Reality Check

Turkey must finally open its eyes and realise that after decades of fighting the ghosts of its past legacies and out-dated ideals, it will never win the battle against Kurdish nationalism until it takes a firm reality check.

The recent majority Kurdish vote for the Recep Tayyip Erdogan AKP party is proof that Turkish Kurds can be swayed into playing a supportive and productive role in a new Turkey.  They must be embraced with open arms to forge new brotherly ties for the benefit of the greater Turkish state, whilst accepting the emergence of a Kurdish entity in Iraq, not as a choice but as a natural eventuality that can not be stopped.

We are seeing the wrongs of the past correcting themselves.  It was inevitable that the explosive seeds that were planted by the artificial of creation states in the Middle East could not remain underground forever. Unfortunately this wave of change is not over and will continue. There are far too many volcanoes waiting to erupt from Iran to Lebanon and possibly beyond.

As for Turkey, it is like fighting a tidal wave, and they must use the tides to ensure maximum gains and benefit and the least painful of landings.