Turkey struggles against the changing times

Undoubtedly, Turkey and their surrounding neighbours fear that if Kurdish aspirations are unchecked, it may create an unstoppable ripple affect for the millions of Kurds inhabiting those countries.

Although the PKK issue has acted as the focal point in channelling Turkish fears, the presence of an estimated 3,000 rebels in the rugged mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan is clearly a side issue to the greater concerns of the ramifications of the potential destabilisating effect of 15 million Turkish Kurds.

Prospects of a Full-Scale Invasion

Clearly, launching any military incursion into Iraq may well backfire. The PKK rebels will disperse into Kurdish towns and villages and even major air raids may be ineffective. A highly unpopular Turkish invasion would only increase support and sympathy for the PKK amongst Iraqi Kurds.

Any major incursion deep into KRG territory may induce direct confrontation with the Kurdish Peshermegra forces, which is likely to only deepen the issue and increase the risk of an all out Turkish-Kurdish war.

As a result of these factors, a full-scale invasion is unlikely and may prove more costly than the limited gains it may provide. Alienating Kurdish populations on either side of the border who heavily rely on one another for billion of dollars worth of trade is political and economical suicide. This motion for the time being at least, is mere sabre-rattling.. It is designed to further pressure the US and Iraqi governments into action and warn the Iraqi Kurds of the dangers of defiance.

Changing Political Climate

Turkey has long accused the US administration of not doing enough to tackle the PKK issue and has called on the Iraqi government to take action.

However, the key problem with any US action to deal with the PKK is the potential to undermine their strong relationship with the Iraqi Kurds and destabilise the only stable part of Iraq. Noticeably, for a Turkey suffering from a dramatic decline of their traditional closeness with the US, this is seen as preferential treatment of the Kurds and double standards in the fight against terrorism.

The occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan by US forces and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon last year set a dangerous precedent for super-powers combating terrorism and threats against national security. Turkey feels it is no exception to the rule and only wider strategic and political implications stopped it from invading Iraq in 2003 to dispel Kurdish ambitions.

However, events in the last year and more recently have irked Turkey beyond care of the repercussions of their actions. Turkey introduced mild reforms and more cultural tolerance of their Kurdish minority under EU accession talks. But despite what it perceived as more than a gesture of goodwill, the reforms on the back of EU pressure did not continue apace. Talks have all but stalled and the divide has only deepened with major reservations from key European nations over the potential influx of millions of largely impoverished Muslims into their Christian super club.

Turkey, in its gradual changing political stance and its increasing ties with the controversial governments in Syria and Iran, has seemingly all but given up the idea of an imminent entry into the European Union and has instead turned its attention to its more immediate concerns. Turkish public opinion has hardly helped; a strong sense of nationalism has kicked in since the Iraqi Kurdish defiance, frequent PKK attacks and the fast declining popularity of the US in the country.