Bush, the Republicans and an unpopular war

However, progress in some areas is likely. Democrats will seek to raise the minimum wage, and given the widespread electoral support for an increase, a veto is unlikely. On illegal immigration Bush and the Democrats have significant common ground. Both favour some form of “comprehensive approach”, rather than the enforcement first approach favoured by many Republicans. The passing of a compromise bill seems plausible.

The political implications of the Democrats’ triumph are more significant than the legislative implications. In the northeast, the Democratic tide washed away a number of popular moderate Republican incumbents who had been holding back the tide in Democratic leaning states. Winning these seats back will prove very difficult. Furthermore, having defended all their senate seats and made six gains, the Democrats are well placed to increase their senate majority in 2008, when nearly two thirds of seats being contested will be Republican held.

Arguably the greatest political advantage the Democrats secured came through their wins in governor races. An incumbent governor provides a presidential candidate a strong, ready made campaign organisation, and a heavyweight ally to stump for them on the trail. Moreover, the state administration oversees the electoral rolls and scrutinises the conduct of the election, a clear advantage in close contests.

Had Florida not had Jeb Bush as governor and Katherine Harris as secretary of state, the 2000 presidential election outcome may have been different. The Democrats did not win the Florida House, but they gained six, including Colorado and Ohio. Ohio’s decisive role in the 2004 outcome is well known, but Bush won Colorado with only 52 per cent. The Democrats are certain to target the 29 electoral votes these states offer, and the governors’ roles will prove very advantageous.

Bush’s unpopularity, and his mismanagement of the Iraq War has come home to roost, sweeping the Republicans from power, and greatly improving the Democrats’ chances in 2008.