The old Left: rebels without cause or hope

Matthew d'Ancona writes, "The public wants him (Blair) to be more, not less radical on public service reform and anti-terrorism measures." He cites that the 90-day detention proposal had a 72 per cent approval rating according to a YouGov poll. And an ICM poll for the BBC politics show revealed that 80 per cent wanted more "choice" in public services and more than half wanted to see "private companies providing a greater share of public services".

Reform of inefficient public services is a traditional Tory winner. David Cameron, the favoured leadership candidate, knows it.

Cameron says: "Should we agree with Tony Blair when he is right? I say a resounding 'Yes'". In addition he says he supports the majority of the Education White Paper leading the charge on reform including supporting more city academies run by the private sector and greater choice for parents in selecting schools.

In addition, the Tory Party will reflect on the politics of Blair’s defeat on 90 days in the anti-terror legislation. It understands it is politically appealing to defeat Tony Blair in a Commons vote. Yet it’s strategically flawed to vote against policies that are appealing to the middle class and Tory voters.

The Tory Party also understands, as Blair has consistently done, that New Labour is a method of combining the best of Tory England reform, with the funding to and access to public services that only a Labour administration can provide. If Tony Blair cannot deliver the reforms of the health service and schools, people will ask who can deliver this model.

Simply put, only the Tories can deliver Blair’s reform agenda now. The question facing David Cameron as leader-in-waiting: Will he deliver it by voting with the government?

Here are a few predictions to consider. Cameron will deliver Tory support. The politics of defeating Blair on key reforms is tactically appealing but strategically flawed.

Cameron will hope that Blair doesn’t push and gives into his backbench concerns for a slowing of reform. This is not in Blair’s character and will play to the Tories strength.

Blair will deliver his reforms on Tory support, but he will lose his prime ministership in doing so. The rebels will get a prized scalp but the war will be over. A bold prediction is the introduction of Blair’s new reforms, and his abdication within 18 months. Bold but sound.