The old Left: rebels without cause or hope

The Tories and the Left want Tony Blair to go for very different reasons. They can't both be correct. The Left are so angered by Blair they are in danger of imperilling their government's reform program.

A week after losing a Commons vote on 90-day detention of terror suspects, an unprecedented 89 rebel Labour MPs have declared they will defy the government on reform of the National Health Service and schools. The rebels do not care about popularity, or loyalty - they want Blair's resignation.

Peter Kilfoyle, a senior rebel, said: "A lot of MPs came to me and said they would go with the government on terror but would not do so when it came to contentious issues on education and health." The contentious points are Blair’s commitment to private sector involvement in running public services, greater consumer choice in service delivery and the decentralisation of authority to operational level.

Many Labour MPs believe "choice" is designed to promote access for middle class children into the better schools, at the expense of funding of poor performing schools. Blair’s charm offensive of rebels is unlikely to resolve this issue as it has done in the past.

Tony Blair faces real risk and reward politics. Will he split his party to secure a long-term legacy?

For most in the Labour Party, it’s an unwanted risk but one it will confront: according to Blair, the next election rides on it. He is adamant that if the government does not deliver a popular reform program, Labour will lose the next election.

Blair is facing Labour's most difficult dilemma head on. He asks of the Labour Party: If you don't want my leadership - with all the reforms pledged in the manifesto - then look elsewhere for a leader. Blair says, "It is better to lose sometimes doing the right thing than to win doing the wrong thing."

Blair has led for 11 years with one approach - from the front, confronting, challenging and chivvying the Labour Party into backing him. But with 89 Labour MPs voting against him, the heavy dents to his authority could be irreparable.

The rebels, sensing blood, have organised into a sophisticated operation that includes whips that can accurately predict how many backbenchers will defy the government on specific issues. These backbench MPs are in no mood to compromise either.

The state of the Labour Party is a double-edged sword for Chancellor Gordon Brown. He argues that Labour must listen, learn and connect with voters and says, "The renewal of New Labour is as big a challenge as the creation of New Labour".

Brown is worried that the reform agenda may be derailed, that he could be blamed and that he would inherit the leadership during a Labour civil war. Brown is playing safe politics for now, assuming a conciliatory stance, but not arguing for watering down of the reforms.

As he often does, Blair asks as many questions of the Tories as he does of the rebels on public sector reform.

Matthew d'Ancona writes, "The public wants him (Blair) to be more, not less radical on public service reform and anti-terrorism measures." He cites that the 90-day detention proposal had a 72 per cent approval rating according to a YouGov poll. And an ICM poll for the BBC politics show revealed that 80 per cent wanted more "choice" in public services and more than half wanted to see "private companies providing a greater share of public services".

Reform of inefficient public services is a traditional Tory winner. David Cameron, the favoured leadership candidate, knows it.

Cameron says: "Should we agree with Tony Blair when he is right? I say a resounding 'Yes'". In addition he says he supports the majority of the Education White Paper leading the charge on reform including supporting more city academies run by the private sector and greater choice for parents in selecting schools.

In addition, the Tory Party will reflect on the politics of Blair’s defeat on 90 days in the anti-terror legislation. It understands it is politically appealing to defeat Tony Blair in a Commons vote. Yet it’s strategically flawed to vote against policies that are appealing to the middle class and Tory voters.

The Tory Party also understands, as Blair has consistently done, that New Labour is a method of combining the best of Tory England reform, with the funding to and access to public services that only a Labour administration can provide. If Tony Blair cannot deliver the reforms of the health service and schools, people will ask who can deliver this model.

Simply put, only the Tories can deliver Blair’s reform agenda now. The question facing David Cameron as leader-in-waiting: Will he deliver it by voting with the government?

Here are a few predictions to consider. Cameron will deliver Tory support. The politics of defeating Blair on key reforms is tactically appealing but strategically flawed.

Cameron will hope that Blair doesn’t push and gives into his backbench concerns for a slowing of reform. This is not in Blair’s character and will play to the Tories strength.

Blair will deliver his reforms on Tory support, but he will lose his prime ministership in doing so. The rebels will get a prized scalp but the war will be over. A bold prediction is the introduction of Blair’s new reforms, and his abdication within 18 months. Bold but sound.