Goldenomics 102: the shadow price of gold

Shadow gold price I

Shadow pricing is a method long used in cost benefit analysis that adjusts prices from, or creates prices for, failed or non-existent markets. The shadow price of gold (SPoG) in August 2018 was defined as: "The linkage between the US monetary base and the implied price of gold."

The In Gold We Trust (IGWT) annual report from May 2025 uses a similar definition: "The theoretical gold price in the event of full gold backing of the base money supply." The report adds: "The reciprocal value of the (SPoG) gives the degree of coverage of the monetary base."

The reciprocal SPoG, based on current market prices, is the "Gold Coverage Ratio" (GCR). The report explains further that: "Currently, the (GCR) in the US is only 14.5%. To put it crudely: Only 14.5 cents of every US dollar currently consists of gold, the remaining 85.5% is air."

Gold backing of monetary base, in percent, 01/1920 to 03/2025.
Source: Incrementum.

Shadow gold price II

According to IGWT: "In the gold bull market of the 2000s, (GCR) tripled from 10.8% to 29.7%. A comparable (GCR) today would only arise if the gold price were to almost double to over $6,000. The record value of 131% from 1980 would correspond to a gold price of around $30,000."

IGWT goes beyond just $USD: "The international shadow gold price (ISPoG) shows how high the gold price would have to rise if the money supply (M0 or M2) of the leading currency areas were covered by the central banks' gold reserves in proportion to their share of global GDP."

"This view impressively reveals the extent of the monetary expansion: With an - admittedly purely theoretical - 100% coverage of the broad money supply M2, the gold price (per ounce) would be over $231,000; even with a moderate 25% coverage, it would be around $58,000."

International shadow gold price at different gold coverage levels (log), in USD, 12/2024.
Source: Incrementum.

Shadow gold price III

In May 2024, James Rickards predicted: "My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000. I don't say that to get attention or to shock people. It's not a guess; it's the result of rigorous analysis."

This was based on a similar approach to SPoG and GCR that he called "the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard (iPoG)." Rickards calculated a gold price, based on iPoG, of $27,533 per ounce."