Hey ho, CORSIA has gotta go (too)!

I made the case last month in "Hey Ho, IMO Has Gotta Go!" that the Trump administration, not only rightly persuaded the IMO (International Maritime Organization) to delay a pseudo carbon tax on global shipping, but they should pull out of this climate scheme or scam all together.

Another specialized agency of the UN met not long ago as well, but unlike IMO, they managed to 'fly under the radar,' pun intended, of the federal cabinet and right leaning media. That was the triennial meeting of ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) in September.

As the International Air Transport Association (IATA) put it: "As you can imagine, with a commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050,…CORSIA-the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation-[was] in the spotlight…[at] this critical meeting[.]"

CORSIA "is the first global market-based scheme that applies to a sector," boasts ICAO. And ICAO "adopted CORSIA in 2016 as the global carbon offsetting mechanism for aviation, rejecting carbon taxes and levies as effective solutions," according to IATA.

"How does CORSIA work?" asks IATA. Their answer: "It requires airlines to purchase and cancel [Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs)] to offset their emissions over and above 85% of 2019 emissions."

IATA goes on to note: "But there's a big challenge: There aren't enough EEUs on the market for airlines to purchase. … The resulting scarce supply of EEUs also distorts the market and drives up the price of the EEUs."

However, according to Forbes in 2024: "There's no current real-world data showing a direct correlation between the price of carbon credits for offsetting and airline ticket prices. … However,…as credits become more expensive or harder to find, the cost for airlines will rise."

Also in 2024, IATA found that fuel costs were "28.7% of total airline costs" but these vary "significantly by region" such as "36.3%" "in Latin America and the Caribbean" "compared to 25.5% in North America." And that capital costs of "depreciation and amortization make up 9.1%."

In addition, a 2025 historical study of the pass-through by domestic aviation of fuel costs between 2000 to 2019, found that "the estimated results for 10% firm-specific fuel price increase are 2.4%, 2.9% and 1.3%," for legacy, low-cost, and ultra-low-cost carriers respectively.

Regarding in maritime shipping, one projection for the price rise of fuel costs is 350%. And such costs have been estimated as representing "between 50–60 % of a ship's operating cost." Some media reports suggested that shipping prices could, thus, increase by more than 10%.

In contrast to the price hikes expected in international shipping, those in international aviation are forecasted to be quite miniscule by comparison. For example, some 2024 modeling estimated an increment "of less than USD $2 per ticket in Phase I and up to USD $5 in Phase II."

Barack Obama once 'said the quiet part out loud' in 2008 regarding all these climate schemes: "Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket." It is unclear whether that is also the aim for CORSIA, after it becomes mandatory from 2027.