Beware of predictions about Australian elections from the UK's Economist magazine

Ever wondered how accurate are all those overseas country reports are in international journals like The Economist? Like me, you probably take it for granted that they reflect both good on the ground knowledge about the local political scene and integrity in reporting events in an unbiased way.

The latest report, however, in the The Economist about the impending Australian federal election casts strong doubts about the journal's knowledge and understanding of Australian politics.

Take this extract from The Economist's special pre-Christmas publication, The World Ahead 2025 concerning the Australian political scene:

The centre-left Labor government has advanced a left-leaning agenda, despite a relatively weak position in the legislature.

Given disarray in the conservative opposition, the government is set to win a new term in lower house elections due by September 2025.

But troubles persist including housing shortages and high living costs, and the government will need support from Greens and independents.

Tax cuts and lower interest rates will help the economy. (p 87)

While the article is right about the Albanese Labor Government being "centre-left" and advancing a "left leaning agenda" the rest must be made by someone who has been very absent from the Australian scene.

Almost every recent poll, for example, is showing the Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition either ahead or even with the Albanese Government. Indeed, the general view from most commentators is that the Albanese Government is looking decidedly shaky.

Further, the Coalition Opposition has not been in "disarray" though it was expected to be following its 2022 defeat. Instead, the Coalition this time has moved from government to opposition without any of the problems that its predecessors experienced. For instance, when the Coalition lost office in 1972, the Liberal and National parties for some 18 months went their own ways. The Liberal Party had two leaders in less than three years. In 1983 after losing office, the Coalition was in opposition for 13 years and the Liberals went through six leadership changes. There was during this period great division between Liberal Party "wets" and "dries" over a whole range of policy issues like privatisation and industrial relations reform. In 2007 after the Howard Coalition fell, there was policy squabbling within the Liberal Party and between it and the Nationals on issues like the environment and an emission trading scheme. The Liberals experienced three leaders within three years.

This time, despite predictions that Peter Dutton would be too conservative and too divisive to keep the broad church of the Liberal Party together, the Liberal Party has been remarkably united. There have been no leadership changes or even inklings of challenges to Dutton. The federal Liberal Party were especially united on the Voice referendum. The Coalition has forged new policy proposals on energy like its nuclear power policy. It has performed well in the parliamentary arena. There are gaps, however, in the Coalition's economic policies, which needs to be addressed.

One final point, The Economist is technically correct that the election for the House of Representatives could be held as late as September 2025, but this ignores the Senate, the expiry dates for long term senators elected in 2019, and the need for a half term Senate election that must be held before June 2025. So, the practicalities are that to avoid a separate half senate election, a simultaneous half Senate and House of Representatives election must be held no later than 17 May 2025. Table 1 gives the details.

Table 1: Commonwealth elections-Next election dates

Last election Earliest date Latest date

Simultaneous half Senate & HReps 21 May 22 3 August '24 17 May 25

election

House of Reps 27 Sept 24

Half Senate 3 August 24 17 May 24

Double Dissolution N/A 29 March 25

Source: https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/Quick_Guides/2022-23/WhenIsTheNextElection2022

Further, the article assumes that a Labor Government will be able to gain support from the Greens and Independents. That is open to some contention.

Lastly, there is the view that tax cuts and lower interest rates will "help the economy" but no mention is made of the expanding budget deficit, the decline in the returns from resource sector given the Chinese economy's slowdown, the rising debt and the continuing lack of productivity growth.

All this shows that The Economist has no idea about the workings of the Australian constitution or its political system (or it seems even the economy) and has either not been watching the polls, the performance of the Opposition, or the latest budget and economic data or is just biased.