Hamas' horrific October 7 attack and Israel's massive retaliatory war have fundamentally changed the dynamic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Returning to the status quo that existed before October 7 will be impossible. New political, psychological, and factual regional conditions have been created that cannot be ignored, as they directly impacted not only Israeli-Palestinian relations for a generation but also the regional stability fed by power dynamics and rivalries between the states in the area. Given these new regional dynamics, Trump will have to choose between paving the way toward the establishment of a Palestinian state or setting the stage for the next catastrophic conflagration that will dwarf the current Israeli-Hamas war.
Trump and his team should carefully consider the following seven crucial changes in regional dynamics if he wants to prevent another catastrophic war and revive "the deal of the century," however remote it may seem at this particular juncture.
Hamas' Massacre and its Psychological Implications It is hard to overestimate the psychological ramifications of Hamas' October 7 attack on the Israeli mindset as it brought to life images from the Holocaust. In many ways, it reaffirmed Netanyahu's misleading two-decades-long public narrative and reinforced the pervasive Israeli public mindset that the Palestinians posed a perpetual threat to Israel's national security. Thus, more than any time before, any effort made by the Trump team that could lead to a two-state solution will face vehement Israeli resistance. This can be mitigated once the Israelis come to terms with the fact that their ultimate national security rests on the establishment of a Palestinian state, firmly tied to comprehensive security arrangements to allay the ingrained psychological impediment among the Israelis.
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The Israeli war of retaliation
Although Israel has the right to defend itself, its war against Hamas was disproportionate even compared to the gruesome Hamas attack. By all accounts, the unprecedented destruction rained on Gaza and the death of over 43,000, nearly half of them women and children, only attest to the desire for revenge and retribution and disregard for innocent human lives. Not since Israel's war of independence in 1948, and especially under the 57-year-long occupation, has the hatred, distrust and violence been intensified between the two sides; Israel's relationship with the Palestinians has reached a new nadir.
Ninety percent of all Palestinians were born under occupation, and the Israel-Hamas war only accelerated the rise of a new hopeless and despairing generation of Palestinian youth for whom jihad and martyrdom are not slogans. Their life mission will be dedicated to avenging what has befallen them, and the harsher measures Israel employs, the more intense and deadly their resistance will be until they realize their national aspiration.
Mutual Realization that Neither can Destroy the Other After 14 months of a brutal war that exacted a horrific toll in blood and treasure, both sides have failed to achieve their stated objective. Even if Israel captures or kills every Hamas combatant, it cannot liquidate it as a national movement and as an idea. Hamas will survive any losses and terrorize Israel for as long as it takes, albeit knowing that Israel is a formidable military power, far beyond their reach to destroy now or at any time in the future.
This mutual realization has changed the conflict's dynamic. Though nearly decimated, Hamas largely achieved its goal. It has fundamentally shaken the status quo and made an unequivocal statement that the Palestinian cause will no longer be ignored. It has set the stage for a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Trump seizes the opportunity.
The role of Saudi Arabia
Before the eruption of the Israel-Hamas war, the US had been negotiating the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. At the time, the Saudis were willing to settle for a vague commitment by Israel 'to make major progress toward a solution to the Palestinian conflict.' But as the horror of the war in Gaza unfolded, the Saudis changed their position, mainly due to the public's outcry about what the Palestinians have tragically endured.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) publicly stated, "The Kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one" [emphasis added]. It should be noted that such a statement from MBS is not political posturing. Saudi Arabia is the leader of Sunni Islam worldwide, making it difficult for MBS to renege and settle for a vague reference to the Palestinians' right to statehood, making him feel obligated to play a central role toward that end.
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Jordan's growing trepidation
The implications of the Gaza war for Jordan are profound and multifaceted. The kingdom faces significant challenges in maintaining internal stability amid rising public anger towards Israel. Jordan must balance its historical commitments to the Palestinian cause and its peace treaty with Israel while managing complex regional dynamics. There are fears of a spillover of refugees from the West Bank and Gaza into Jordan, which can destabilize Jordan, especially if Israel annexes further Palestinian territories in the West Bank. Recently, the far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared before a meeting of his Religious Zionism party that "2025 is the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria," resurrecting the notion that "Jordan is Palestine," which terrifies the Kingdom.
The ongoing conflicts could also increase militant activity and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, particularly among Jordanian youth. Moreover, regional dynamics involving Iran and other actors further complicate Jordan's position, which compels the kingdom to navigate threats from Iranian proxies while managing its relationships with Israel, Western allies, and neighboring Arab states. Nothing would allay the Jordanian fears and prevent regional uproar but the creation of a Palestinian state.
International Recognition of a Palestinian State One hundred forty-six countries have recognized the Palestinian state, which is a significant step because it legitimizes the Palestinians' right to statehood and places Palestine on equal footing with other states. It allows countries to establish diplomatic relations and facilitate direct economic ties, sending a clear message to Israel about international support for Palestinian statehood.