Palestinian statehood or setting the stage for the next catastrophic war

Hamas' horrific October 7 attack and Israel's massive retaliatory war have fundamentally changed the dynamic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Returning to the status quo that existed before October 7 will be impossible. New political, psychological, and factual regional conditions have been created that cannot be ignored, as they directly impacted not only Israeli-Palestinian relations for a generation but also the regional stability fed by power dynamics and rivalries between the states in the area. Given these new regional dynamics, Trump will have to choose between paving the way toward the establishment of a Palestinian state or setting the stage for the next catastrophic conflagration that will dwarf the current Israeli-Hamas war.

Trump and his team should carefully consider the following seven crucial changes in regional dynamics if he wants to prevent another catastrophic war and revive "the deal of the century," however remote it may seem at this particular juncture.

Hamas' Massacre and its Psychological Implications It is hard to overestimate the psychological ramifications of Hamas' October 7 attack on the Israeli mindset as it brought to life images from the Holocaust. In many ways, it reaffirmed Netanyahu's misleading two-decades-long public narrative and reinforced the pervasive Israeli public mindset that the Palestinians posed a perpetual threat to Israel's national security. Thus, more than any time before, any effort made by the Trump team that could lead to a two-state solution will face vehement Israeli resistance. This can be mitigated once the Israelis come to terms with the fact that their ultimate national security rests on the establishment of a Palestinian state, firmly tied to comprehensive security arrangements to allay the ingrained psychological impediment among the Israelis.

The Israeli war of retaliation

Although Israel has the right to defend itself, its war against Hamas was disproportionate even compared to the gruesome Hamas attack. By all accounts, the unprecedented destruction rained on Gaza and the death of over 43,000, nearly half of them women and children, only attest to the desire for revenge and retribution and disregard for innocent human lives. Not since Israel's war of independence in 1948, and especially under the 57-year-long occupation, has the hatred, distrust and violence been intensified between the two sides; Israel's relationship with the Palestinians has reached a new nadir.

Ninety percent of all Palestinians were born under occupation, and the Israel-Hamas war only accelerated the rise of a new hopeless and despairing generation of Palestinian youth for whom jihad and martyrdom are not slogans. Their life mission will be dedicated to avenging what has befallen them, and the harsher measures Israel employs, the more intense and deadly their resistance will be until they realize their national aspiration.

Mutual Realization that Neither can Destroy the Other After 14 months of a brutal war that exacted a horrific toll in blood and treasure, both sides have failed to achieve their stated objective. Even if Israel captures or kills every Hamas combatant, it cannot liquidate it as a national movement and as an idea. Hamas will survive any losses and terrorize Israel for as long as it takes, albeit knowing that Israel is a formidable military power, far beyond their reach to destroy now or at any time in the future.

This mutual realization has changed the conflict's dynamic. Though nearly decimated, Hamas largely achieved its goal. It has fundamentally shaken the status quo and made an unequivocal statement that the Palestinian cause will no longer be ignored. It has set the stage for a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Trump seizes the opportunity.

The role of Saudi Arabia

Before the eruption of the Israel-Hamas war, the US had been negotiating the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. At the time, the Saudis were willing to settle for a vague commitment by Israel 'to make major progress toward a solution to the Palestinian conflict.' But as the horror of the war in Gaza unfolded, the Saudis changed their position, mainly due to the public's outcry about what the Palestinians have tragically endured.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) publicly stated, "The Kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one" [emphasis added]. It should be noted that such a statement from MBS is not political posturing. Saudi Arabia is the leader of Sunni Islam worldwide, making it difficult for MBS to renege and settle for a vague reference to the Palestinians' right to statehood, making him feel obligated to play a central role toward that end.

Jordan's growing trepidation

The implications of the Gaza war for Jordan are profound and multifaceted. The kingdom faces significant challenges in maintaining internal stability amid rising public anger towards Israel. Jordan must balance its historical commitments to the Palestinian cause and its peace treaty with Israel while managing complex regional dynamics. There are fears of a spillover of refugees from the West Bank and Gaza into Jordan, which can destabilize Jordan, especially if Israel annexes further Palestinian territories in the West Bank. Recently, the far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared before a meeting of his Religious Zionism party that "2025 is the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria," resurrecting the notion that "Jordan is Palestine," which terrifies the Kingdom.

The ongoing conflicts could also increase militant activity and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, particularly among Jordanian youth. Moreover, regional dynamics involving Iran and other actors further complicate Jordan's position, which compels the kingdom to navigate threats from Iranian proxies while managing its relationships with Israel, Western allies, and neighboring Arab states. Nothing would allay the Jordanian fears and prevent regional uproar but the creation of a Palestinian state.

International Recognition of a Palestinian State One hundred forty-six countries have recognized the Palestinian state, which is a significant step because it legitimizes the Palestinians' right to statehood and places Palestine on equal footing with other states. It allows countries to establish diplomatic relations and facilitate direct economic ties, sending a clear message to Israel about international support for Palestinian statehood.

Of special significance is that three Western European countries, Ireland, Norway, and Spain, have recognized Palestine this year, which may encourage other European states to follow suit. There is no escaping the reality that the Palestinians have made significant inroads into the international arena in support of a Palestinian state.

The Israeli government

The current Israeli government led by Netanyahu is unmatched as the most extremist right-wing government since Israel's creation. It is bent on annexing most of the West Bank and reestablishing Israeli settlements in Gaza. Two of its most radical right-wing ministers, National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich have stated that the Palestinians, not Israel, are the occupiers of Jewish land. Smotrich recently said, "The new Nazis need to pay a price through land that will be permanently taken from them, both in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria... we were just a step away from applying sovereignty over the settlements in Judea and Samaria, and now the time has come to do it."

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich were salivating to recall the 2019 statement of Mike Huckabee, Trump's nominee for US Ambassador to Israel, that he believes Israel has the right to annex significant parts of the West Bank and added that there was no such thing as a settlement or even a Palestinian people. And Steven Witkoff, whom Trump appointed as his special envoy to the Middle East, is also a staunch supporter of Israel. For Netanyahu, these appointees' positions align ideologically with his government's policies. There is nothing more ominous for Israel if, indeed, the government implements such a plan that will shatter the Palestinians' final glimmer of hope, as it will lead to horrific consequences unless Trump prevents it from happening.

Trump faces a historic opportunity

Trump may well be in the best position to start a genuine Israeli-Palestinian peace process that will eventually lead to Palestinian statehood. Given his commitment to Israel's security and well-being, he must not allow Israel to annex any more territory in the West Bank or resettle in Gaza, as this will only set the stage for the next horrific conflagration and throw the entire region into unprecedented turmoil.

Being an ardent supporter of Israel, and due to the affinity that most Israelis hold towards him, Trump is in a much stronger position than many of his predecessors, not only to call for a two-state solution but act on it. During his first term in office, Trump put forward a peace deal that recognized Palestinian statehood, which was a sharp departure from past proposals; it did not call for the evacuation of Israeli settlements, which is supported by a vast majority of Israelis.

Working toward Palestinian statehood would dramatically allay the Jordanians' deep anxiety about their country's stability, meet the Saudis' demand to establish a Palestinian state as a prerequisite to the normalization of relations with Israel, give hope to the Palestinians that the day of their salvation is near, and temper extremism and anti-Israeli sentiments while depriving Iran and its "axis of resistance" from exploiting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to advance their regional agendas.

The biggest obstacle Trump will face is the current Israeli government, which has sworn to never allow the creation of a Palestinian state. They seem to have learned nothing from decades of occupation that has only intensified Palestinian militancy, culminating in Hamas' savagery and Israel's retaliatory war. Now, this messianic government wants to annex much of the West Bank, resettle in Gaza, and plunge Israel into interminable violence and destruction unseen before. Indeed, whereas Israel can prevail over any external enemy, the enemy from within is the current Israeli government, which must be dislodged before any agreement can be reached.

For Trump to revive the "deal of the century," he will have to go over the head of Netanyahu and address the Israeli public directly and point out the stark reality that the Israelis have and continue to be oblivious to but must live with. He should emphasize that:

Nearly seven million Palestinians are living in the West Bank, Gaza and Israel proper, which is equal to the number of Jews living in Israel and the West Bank. By what means and for how much longer, he must ask, can Israel dominate and oppress the Palestinians of an equivalent population with no endgame in sight?

Ninety percent of all Palestinians were born under occupation; they will deprive Israel of a day of peace until they free themselves from the shackles of the occupation that has dehumanized them and robbed them of their dignity.

Coexistence is not one of many options; it is the only option. The Israelis must choose to live in peace or maintain a state of constant hostilities while poisoning one generation after another to be consumed by hatred and disdain toward the Palestinians.

Israel has lost much of its moral international standing and more tragically, it is losing its very reason for being. An increasing number of diaspora Jewry feel betrayed by the country they viewed as the sanctuary for any Jew who wants to live in peace and security.

Conclusion

It is impossible to overestimate the intractable issues between Israel and the Palestinians that must be addressed to reach a peace agreement. But however painful that might be, it will pale if compared to the alternative of continuing death and destruction that will destroy one generation after another.

Trump faces a historic opportunity. He can lay the foundation for a Palestinian state or set the stage for the next catastrophic war. His appointment of an extraordinarily supportive team of Israel gives him the latitude and credibility to persuade the Israelis that only a two-state solution offers them peace and security, and his "Deal of the Century" provides the framework to that end.