Dutton may be winning in the polls. But he has a major problem to overcome

Despite recent favourable opinion polls, Peter Dutton faces one big major hurdle in taking his Liberal-National coalition to office at the next federal election.

This has nothing to do with his supposed conservatism, personal popularity ratings or distinctive policy stances like saying "no" to the Voice or flagging nuclear power.

In fact, those stances have put the Coalition on a better footing than predicted.

The real problem is the poor condition of the Liberal Party across its different state and territory divisions.

The Liberal Party is a state-and territory-based organisation, not a nationally integrated one, and it is at that level that impacts on the federal party's success.

It is to state branches that supporters join, where all candidates are preselected, funds raised, campaigns run and members learn what works.

State responsibilities cover key areas like schools, health, public safety, transport and housing, so state parties are more connected to the electorate than federal secretariats in Canberra.

The Liberal Party is the sum of its state and territory parts so when these go awry, fracture into factions and focus on their own internecine battles rather than policies for their citizens, they become a millstone on their federal colleagues.

Look at the state and territory Liberal branches and ask how can Dutton win?

NSW is factionalised, taken over by odd cliques, manipulated by outside powerbrokers, and administratively incompetent as the local government nomination debacle showed. Its state leader couldn't even support Dutton on the Voice. Its candidates are increasingly of the political class with experience limited to ministerial offices.

So bad is the NSW branch that unprecedented federal intervention is now in play. Can all the broken pieces be put back together to restore unity and campaign effectiveness in this crucial state before the next election?

Victoria, once the "jewel in the Liberal Party crown", has long been tarnished. It has lost every election since 2014. Its last two premiers never even served full terms. Run by a small inner-city clique so bent on inclusiveness to save their seats that the party no longer represents its base. Despite Victorian Labor government being so repressive and financially inept, the Liberals failed to dent its hold on power at the last election. Local Nationals who attack their federal colleagues are hardly any better.

In South Australia, it is worse. The Liberals have only won only a single election in a decade then held office for just one term. Now, their former state parliamentary leader has been charged with drug-related issues. Get prepared for byelection loses. More state Liberals leave the party than stick to it. How could this factionalised party campaign to win back federal seats?

There may be a Liberal Party government in Tasmania but it faltered at the recent election, is tainted by defections and senior ministerial resignation, infrastructure scandals and seems 'Liberal' in name only. Luckily for Dutton, Tasmania only has five House of Representative seats.

Out west the state Liberals were reduced to just two seats in 2021, outnumbered by even the Nationals, and while a revival will occur next year, is the party able to win back the federal seats lost to Labor in 2022?

In Queensland the state Liberal National Party has won one election in 12. That one term Newman government, a textbook case on what not to do, has cast a shadow on the current LNP prior to the October state election causing it to pursue such a cautious small-target election policy strategy.

It can neither support Dutton on nuclear power, provide an alternative budget, nor announce where a new stadium for the 2032 Brisbane Olympics will be built. Even if the LNP wins office as expected, it may prove more a hindrance than a help to Dutton as it learns how to actually govern.

Of course there are the two territories, but they return small numbers of federal seats, in the Northern Territory electoral success has been sporadic in the ACT, rare.

So, given all this, how can Dutton win the next election?