The questionable merit of Australia's official support for a two-state solution to the Palestine conflict

Support for a two-state solution in Palestine is a long-established and bipartisan foreign policy position in this country. Such a solution is also widely supported in the international community, and at one stage seemed likely to come about. In Australia, under the Albanese Government, Labor has weakened official support for Israel, especially in relation to its military responses to the 7 October Hamas attack, and differences with the Coalition have sharpened.

Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, recently repeated the government's desire to see a formally recognised Palestinian state in the Middle East, co-existing with the state of Israel but without the involvement of designated terrorist group Hamas. The Government is also supporting a truce (especially in Gaza) and eventual recognition of Palestinian statehood.

The world needs a lasting solution to the conflict in Palestine. The question is whether the policies the Australian Government is supporting, remain viable options.

While said to be subject to negotiations, the two-state solution is generally seen as involving a return to something like pre-1967 borders (including negotiated adjustments). Israel would cede land in return for guarantees of peace and security.

Prior to the events of October 2023, many polls had suggested majority support among both Palestinians and Israelis for such a peace settlement. This was always subject to a general proviso that the other side would be cooperative in making the necessary concessions.

The latest Gallup poll now shows that support for a two-state solution has plummeted.

In Israel, more than twice as many people now do not support the two-state solution as support it (64% vs. 27%, respectively). In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, enthusiasm for the two-state solution was equally as low. Slightly over a quarter (28%) support it, compared with 64% who do not.

There are now many impediments to a two-state solution:

· The biggest problem is that many believe that Hamas or other organisations hostile to the existence of Israel would likely be elected to power in the West Bank and Gaza following any settlement. If the Palestinians cannot offer long-lasting peace, Israel has little incentive to make concessions.

· A key prerequisite for a two-state solution to work is for Palestinians to be sufficiently moderate to accept Israel's right to exist and to cut ties with Tehran and terrorist groups.

· In total, over 500,000 Israeli settlers now live in the West Bank excluding East Jerusalem, with an additional 220,000 Jewish settlers residing in East Jerusalem. This greatly complicates disengagement of the two communities.

· A lot of the motivation to settle the West Bank is religiously based and stems from much of the West Bank being Jewish heartland during Biblical times.