Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Despite 1m migrants in 2022-24, the Budget barely slackens the war on voters.

By Stephen Saunders - posted Friday, 17 May 2024


The Budget showstopper, Future Made in Australia,was telegraphed well in advance. The economy, so Treasurer Chalmers proclaimed, could unlock lasting prosperity, via pre-selected industries such as "green" minerals, renewable hydrogen, "clean energy" manufactures, and quantum computing.

Yep, it that's "global energy superpower" trope, same as last Budget.

But how could suchlike flourish, with Treasury rusted onto the same old economic model? Australia as the dumb luck quarry of the world, addicted to dumb levels of immigration.

Advertisement

Government-favoured economists agree, Treasury has structural problems. Rues Ross Garnaut, the decade from 2013 is Australia's first ever, that has lowered real wages. Adds Martin Parkinson, in the Migration Review, productivity growth over the 2010-2020 decade was the slowest in sixty years.

Neither they nor the Treasurer will admit a (the) root cause. Twenty lost years of Big (now Huge) Australia has decimated productivity and capital formation.

Australian manufacturing has collapsed further, this century. We don't have energetic R&D (or venture-capital) cultures. Manufacturing inputs are costly. Our east-coast gas cartel, far from fuelling any Made in Australia, is driving manufactures to the wall.

Wouldn't the USA and EU just love to have, Island Australia's easily manageable border-control "problems". That's what makes Labor's all-time immigration numbers so reckless and reprehensible.

As against ecologically sustainable net-migration of perhaps 50,000-80,000 per annum, or even the incredible Kevin Rudd record of 560,000 in two years, the Albanese Government will run up a staggering one million net (give or take) in its first two years.

An astonishing 80% of our population growth is coming from immigration. It's poor form in polite circles, to call this population replacement, like, for lower wages. But it's nigh on that.

Advertisement

This Budget's net-migration estimate for 2024-25 is 260,000. Don't believe our "churn and change" Treasurer. He will overshoot, yet again.

Recall his corresponding estimates, in May 2023 (315,000) and October 2022 (235,000) Budgets. Both (ahem) "updated" several times. Both eventually overshot, by huge margins.

Even with 2023-24 nearly gone, he's not being honest with us. The Budget claims 2023-24 net migration will pan out at 395,000. On numbers to hand, 450,000 plus, even 500,000, looks the more likely result.

Entitled donors and stakeholders support this population rush. That's not surprising, of industry and developers. Regrettably, it also includes universities and unions, think tanks, even our rental/housing advocacies. State governments too, even though they shoulder the big costs of overpopulation.

Disenfranchised voters aren't so keen. No reliable post-COVID survey aligns them with Huge Australia, which eats away their living standards and shrinks housing affordability.

In the sixth voter survey from Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI), nearly 50% of respondents wanted much lower (or nil) net-migration, well up from the previous survey. About 70% thought Australia didn't need more people.

Chief Migration Agent, aka Treasurer, disregards this plebeian sentiment.

As if suddenly discovering, how an irrational immigration blitz can fuel inflation and cost pressures, he cobbles together a "cost of living" Budget Speech and Overview.

His cost of living "relief" is tailored for soft media coverage. His gas cartel remains off-limits, instead, a rushed $300 energy rebate applies to all and sundry.

This Budget protects the 21st century taxation and population policies that have institutionalised housing unaffordability. Treasurer seems to accept it as "normal", into the future, that essential workers and median families will really struggle to rent or buy.

While exhorting them, from his Treasury Building heights, go have more children.

With Australia's infrastructure-build scrambling to keep up, Labor's huge migration-shock makes housing construction uneconomic, renders housing targets unrealistic.

Instead of really slashing immigration, this Budget is tipping "billions more" into home-building. Another media-seeking band-aid. The "1.2 million homes over five years" remains a pipe dream.

In practice, Treasurer's GDP bottom-lines still lean on rapid population growth and rapid natural-resources depletion. Except, we're no Norway or Qatar. Too little of the earthly bounty is squirrelled away for national wealth and wellbeing.

As TAPRI underlines, the USA and certain EU nations exhibit strong parties or coalitions, to channel voter dismay at excessive immigration. That's not true of Australia. Labor, Liberal, Greens, and Teals, all back mass migration.

In his Speech, Chalmers congratulates himself, for "halving" migration down to 260,000. Ridiculous remark. Labor's so-called "migration nation" had never topped 200,000, before 2007. Or 300,000, before 2008.

This patrician first-term government is giving Peter Dutton a real chance, nuclear power or not. Don't know if he'd make a big difference, population wise though he has promised a cap on student numbers and a 25% cut in the permanent migration target.

There's still a danger, the upcoming election will perpetuate 250,000-300,000 net-migration annually, as the fake "normal" or minimum. That's 3-5 times the levels that would be desirable, to stabilise our population anywhere near 30 million.

Our economic future is indeed being Made in Australia. But that looks to include chronic housing unaffordability, widening inequality, and continuing ecological overshoot.

 

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

19 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Stephen Saunders is a former APS public servant and consultant.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Stephen Saunders

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Article Tools
Comment 19 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy