The 1983 Queensland Coalition split: a tale of opportunism, hubris and miscalculation

Liberals thought this would be a temporary aberration. All would return to normal at the next election. All they had to do, was sit pat, support the Nationals in parliament, and not consort with Labor, and the electoral pendulum would swing back their way and they would return to office and perhaps even be able to bargain a more advantageous agreement with the Nationals.

This didn't happen.

Instead, at the subsequent 1986 election the Nationals consolidated their hold on power. Liberals remained stuck on the crossbench. Labor made no further headway. Their turn would come later.

What happened next?

Such success combined with considerable hubris on the part of Premier Bjelke-Petersen convinced the Nationals it could all be duplicated on the national political stage.

At the time, there was considerable frustration with the federal coalition's performance. It had lost two elections in a row (1983 and 1984). There was dissatisfaction with John Howard's leadership of the Federal Opposition. Business wanted a more supportive tax regime and promised financial support for a Bjelke-Petersen led tilt at Canberra. And there was traditional State antipathy against the increasingly intrusive Commonwealth government.

So, it was in this atmosphere the Queensland Nationals launched their 'Joh for PM' campaign. It sought to completely take over non-Labor politics in Australia.

Then Premier and Queensland National Party Leader Joh Bjelke-Petersen

Impacts

Nationally, and in Queensland, the 'Joh for PM' (later modified to the less ambitious 'Joh for Canberra') campaign proved to be a disaster for the non-Labor parties.

Nationally, it caused the federal coalition to split, and the Hawke Labor Government to exploit the disarray by calling and winning the 1987 federal election. The 'Joh for PM' campaign produced no substantive gains but caused considerable confusion to the non-Labor campaign.

Although Howard's leadership initially survived and the coalition performed better than expected at the election, the whole affair nevertheless destabilised Howard's leadership. Two years later Andrew Peacock replaced him as leader. Consequently, for some time Howard was regarded as a spent force. Some of his federal colleagues even urged him to "fade away"[ii]. While the federal coalition was quickly patched up considerable distrust remained between the two parties thus affecting their performance. Two more leaders after Peacock[iii] and two more election losses (1990 and 1993) followed until Howard returned to lead the Liberals to a landslide victory in 1996.

In Queensland, the failed 'Joh for PM' campaign also had adverse impacts on the non-Labor parties. It undermined Bjelke-Petersen's premiership. He had become increasingly erratic and so was replaced as premier by the end of the year. Two premiers would follow (Ahern and Cooper) over the next two years. The party of stability became the party of instability. Importantly, the Canberra venture had so distracted the Nationals' normally astute and alert leadership that the Fitzgerald inquiry into police corruption had been allowed to be appointed and to probe deeper. The highly critical Fitzgerald Report released in 1989 allowed Labor under Wayne Goss to have a landslide election win. It decimated the Nationals and largely bypassed by Liberals.

Since then, the Queensland coalition's return to office has been intermittent and short-lived. They have only held office for five out of the last 34 years.[iv] There has been a high turnover of leaders. Consequently, few current LNP members have had governing experience. Although now united under the Liberal National Party banner, and despite the many mistakes of the incumbent Palaszczuk Government, they are not a certainty to win the forthcoming 2024 election. They are seen to lack a consistent and distinctive policy agenda that both appeals to their own supporters and the general voter. Their recent backflip over the Queensland Government's proposed treaty with indigenous people which they had supported in parliament earlier this year is, a case in point.