Why real political change in Malaysia is not going to happen

In GE15, PH did not win enough seats to govern. It needed Malay-centric representation with influence beyond its 30 MPs to govern. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim must govern as a primarily Malay-centric prime minister, if he is going to stay in power.

Back in GE14, the PH victory required Malay leaders like Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin to support and campaign for PH. Just as they assisted PH become the government, they also took away power from PH leading to its fall in February 2020.

The odds are very much against any multiracial and secular political grouping winning a general election unless the general political environment of the nation radically changes in the future.

Institutions

The interpretation of Malaya's history, and the corresponding constitution written for Malaya, and later Malaysia in 1963 is one that puts power into the hands of the Malay elite.

The British redefined the Malay sultanates into modern territorial states with the Sultans as absolute monarchs. These sovereign monarchs gave up most of their executive powers, when Malaya was formed.

However, the Sultans were granted authority over Malay customs and Islam. They also had some discretion over the selection and appointment of their chief ministers, and hold pre- and post-executive council meetings with their executive councillors.

As Malaya was made up of 11 states, the head of state was selected on rotation from among the nine Malay rulers. Neither Sabah nor Sarawak play any role in the selection, nor can its governor serve as head of state. This means the position of Malaysia's head of state will always be held by a Malay ruler.

The Agong together with the council of rulers have much discretion over the appointment of judges and other important offices like the attorney-general. The council of rulers now control the Islamic development department (Jakim), which receives around RM 1.5 billion in annual budget allocations. With its new roles in economic planning and censorship, Jakim is a powerful portion of the civil service.

Interestingly, the Malay rulers have the responsibility to protect the guaranteed rights of all Malaysians. Behind this is the power provided in Article 41 of the constitution, which makes the Agong the supreme leader of the armed forces, with a special advisory council.

This generation of rulers have great pride and feelings of responsibility for the legacy and heritage of their forefathers. The sultans will maintain the sovereignty of their respective Malay states, and will do this through their respective responsibilities for Malay culture and Islam. No ruler would ever allow anyone who did not respect this point of view as their chief minister.

This attitude permeates throughout the civil service in what is called the "Malay agenda". This is a Malay-nationalist view that the interests of Malays, must be at the front of thinking, and decision-making. Any policy directive issued by any government seen as against the "Malay agenda", would be refused.