What if a China balloon flies over Australia?

China's Motives

It is possible that the China balloon may be a dual purpose one which permits the collection of weather and information from the US air force nuclear facility in Montana.

It is also possible that the flight path of the balloon was no accident but a response to the US recent attempts at escalation of its anti-China policies which has included what some observers see as further military encirclement of China through the latest deal of the US with the Philippines government which allows the US four more military bases in North Philippines in addition to the current US ones in Japan and South Korea, and as far away as Australia.

Other possible reasons also include a deliberate and not so subtle China response to the memo on war with China and shoot to kill guidance issued by a US air force general. No need to engage in hot air and rhetoric over the media and airwaves. Simply sent across a balloon for the war hawks to shoot to kill and claim victory.

It could be that the China balloon is a trial balloon aimed at testing the defence capabilities of the US or simply a warning that China has the capability to retaliate at the US heartland should there be a US military adventure in the South China Sea or China region where most of the US military forces are parked at to ensure American hegemony and maintenance of the US version of the rules based international order which Australia is beholden to.

What next?

The US military has conclusively shown to the world that it is able to defend the country against whatever war contraption comes from China. According to Gen. Glen Van Herck, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command, the balloon had to be brought down by a missile fired by a F22 fighter plane, presently the most advanced fighter plane in the US.

Standing at 200 feet high and cruising at 25 knots, the balloon clearly was a difficult target to bring down. Rumours that the balloon is made of a top secret super resilient new balloon material and required several missile hits to bring it down have not been confirmed. Investigation by US scientists of the balloon debris is currently underway. Should it uncover any new weapon secrets, reverse engineering to American advantage, can now take place for a change.

Incidentally war game aficionados should note that the downing of the balloon event has made its way into US military history as the first official air to air kill for the F22 which has cost American taxpayers US$62 billion for 187 of them. They will surely be supportive of a much bigger budget for the US air force in the war to preserve American freedom, way of life and sovereignty.

As for China, it should not be too concerned over the postponement or even cancellation of Blinken's visit given that he is a long time confirmed war hawk. Blinken has been actively involved in American interventionist policies since the Iraq war. One of the US strongest advocates for the overthrow of Libyan president Muammar al-Gaddaf, he is a supporter of Israel and the oppression of the Palestinian people.

Blinken's hawkish credentials can also be deduced from his time as a lobbyist for the military-industrial complex through West-Exec Advisors, a firm he co-founded before being appointed by Biden to lead U.S. foreign policy.

The chief concern for China now may be to avoid sending any more balloons near to the US in case this brings more nightmares to the American public and provides further justification to the hate China lobby.

Meanwhile in Canberra, Australia's Strategic Policy Institute, other think tanks and mainstream media should sound the alarm and also draw the lesson that the eight nuclear powered submarines to come with AUKUS will not be enough or come in time to ward off the China threat.

Much more urgent investment is needed to ensure that Australian and Pacific skies are free of China's war balloons and satellites. For a start the launch of an Australian military satellite to be parked by the China coast will demonstrate to Australia's Asian allies the determination of the Australian government to defend the international balance of power in the China region.