What if a China balloon flies over Australia?

Another day. Another happening to hype up the US and West against China

A China weather balloon that has blown into the US has had Western politicians and journalists' knickers in a twist.

Although clarified by China's foreign ministry that the alleged spy balloon was a civilian research "airship" for gathering weather data which "deviated far from its planned course" due to strong winds and the balloon's limited steering capabilities, the development has precipitated what American journalist, Christopher Hooks, has described as"one of the stupidest news cycles in living memory". Prominent anti war activist, Caitlin Johnson, has weighed in to express concern at " the entire American political/media class having an existential meltdown over what the Pentagon claims is a Chinese spy balloon."

China's Foreign Ministry had clarified that "The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure". But this seems to have only added fuel to the US frenzy.

US Response

Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled his diplomatic visit to China whilst US war hawks and even self professed liberal leaders have hogged the mass media to beat the war drums and call for retaliation on the 'attack' balloon and anything from or remotely related to China.

"A big Chinese balloon in the sky and millions of Chinese TikTok balloons on our phones," tweeted Senator Mitt Romney. "Let's shut them all down."

A small minority of independent commentators have noted that even if the balloon had spying potential, there is no reason for Americans to lose their minds or control of their bowels.

They point out that Chinese satellites as with US satellites already can read the licence plates of cars in the target country so there is little or no value added for the Chinese military from the balloon.

Secondly, all major governments spy on each other with the world record held by the US since the end of the second world war. This is a record which is apparent from the military budget of the US estimated at US$778 billion for 2023 compared with that of China's $252 billion, India's $72.9 billion, Russia's $61.7 billion and the UK's $59.2 billion. Australia's military budget is a relatively modest sum at $30.7 billion. But it is one of the largest in the world on a per capita basis

It has also been estimated by western sources that 123 US military satellites are circling the earth. In comparison, Russia has 74 military satellites whilst China has 68. Australia has zero military satellites.

The Pentagon's initial assessment, lost in the hysterical response, is that the balloon "does not create significant value added over and above what the PRC is likely able to collect through things like satellites in Low Earth Orbit."

For now though, the Pentagon is quite happy to see Americans freaking out over a balloon as long as it continues getting funds to encircle China with military bases and weaponry.

China's Motives

It is possible that the China balloon may be a dual purpose one which permits the collection of weather and information from the US air force nuclear facility in Montana.

It is also possible that the flight path of the balloon was no accident but a response to the US recent attempts at escalation of its anti-China policies which has included what some observers see as further military encirclement of China through the latest deal of the US with the Philippines government which allows the US four more military bases in North Philippines in addition to the current US ones in Japan and South Korea, and as far away as Australia.

Other possible reasons also include a deliberate and not so subtle China response to the memo on war with China and shoot to kill guidance issued by a US air force general. No need to engage in hot air and rhetoric over the media and airwaves. Simply sent across a balloon for the war hawks to shoot to kill and claim victory.

It could be that the China balloon is a trial balloon aimed at testing the defence capabilities of the US or simply a warning that China has the capability to retaliate at the US heartland should there be a US military adventure in the South China Sea or China region where most of the US military forces are parked at to ensure American hegemony and maintenance of the US version of the rules based international order which Australia is beholden to.

What next?

The US military has conclusively shown to the world that it is able to defend the country against whatever war contraption comes from China. According to Gen. Glen Van Herck, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command, the balloon had to be brought down by a missile fired by a F22 fighter plane, presently the most advanced fighter plane in the US.

Standing at 200 feet high and cruising at 25 knots, the balloon clearly was a difficult target to bring down. Rumours that the balloon is made of a top secret super resilient new balloon material and required several missile hits to bring it down have not been confirmed. Investigation by US scientists of the balloon debris is currently underway. Should it uncover any new weapon secrets, reverse engineering to American advantage, can now take place for a change.

Incidentally war game aficionados should note that the downing of the balloon event has made its way into US military history as the first official air to air kill for the F22 which has cost American taxpayers US$62 billion for 187 of them. They will surely be supportive of a much bigger budget for the US air force in the war to preserve American freedom, way of life and sovereignty.

As for China, it should not be too concerned over the postponement or even cancellation of Blinken's visit given that he is a long time confirmed war hawk. Blinken has been actively involved in American interventionist policies since the Iraq war. One of the US strongest advocates for the overthrow of Libyan president Muammar al-Gaddaf, he is a supporter of Israel and the oppression of the Palestinian people.

Blinken's hawkish credentials can also be deduced from his time as a lobbyist for the military-industrial complex through West-Exec Advisors, a firm he co-founded before being appointed by Biden to lead U.S. foreign policy.

The chief concern for China now may be to avoid sending any more balloons near to the US in case this brings more nightmares to the American public and provides further justification to the hate China lobby.

Meanwhile in Canberra, Australia's Strategic Policy Institute, other think tanks and mainstream media should sound the alarm and also draw the lesson that the eight nuclear powered submarines to come with AUKUS will not be enough or come in time to ward off the China threat.

Much more urgent investment is needed to ensure that Australian and Pacific skies are free of China's war balloons and satellites. For a start the launch of an Australian military satellite to be parked by the China coast will demonstrate to Australia's Asian allies the determination of the Australian government to defend the international balance of power in the China region.