World order change coming?

Online Opinion

Lim Teck Ghee

Whether it is Trump or Harris winning the Presidential election, he or she will have to prioritise the domestic issues dividing the country and which their respective parties and political leadership have been unable to deal with.

With Australia's media fixated on the United States (US) presidential election, they are missing examining the unprecedented turbulence rocking key players in geopolitics and the current world order dominated by the United States which Australia has reinforced its commitment to.

The Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies forum which has coordinated global economic policy for fifty years, and functioned as a handmaiden of American economic and foreign policy interests and agenda, is in disarray.

Italy has a newly elected president from the radical rightwing and its nationalist conservatism wave, anti incumbency, anti immigrant sentiments, and electoral volatility have had aftershocks reverberate across the continent.

Today, France and Germany, the leading European nations, are having the grip of long running establishment parties not just challenged but also considerably loosened. Emmanuel Macron is virtually a lame duck President for the next 3 years with diluted powers in domestic and foreign policy. A similar fate awaits Olaf Scholz. Although not due for a leadership challenge soon, Scholz is in charge of a coalition government which has turned further right and splintered more during the recent European Parliament election.

Meanwhile in Japan, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has booted himself out of his leadership position in government and the Liberal Democratic party. Faced with a lacklustre economy, endemic political and money scandals, and unpopular ruling and opposition parties, Japan is stalled for the foreseeable future with weak factionless leadership lacking strong majority support.

Rudderless in domestic politics, Japan has become more dependent on the US for foreign policy leadership. This is clear by its break from a more pacifist foreign policy to one with a record military expenditure for 2024, and which is slated to increase until 2027. Besides greater convergence with US policy in the Asia Pacific region to contain and contest China, the Japanese government is loosening export restrictions on the supply of lethal weapons munitions to other countries. So much for the lessons learnt from its Second World War disastrous experience and Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

What Happens After November

As with G7's malaise, whether it is Trump or Harris winning the Presidential election, he or she will have to prioritise the domestic issues dividing the country, and which their respective parties and political leadership have been unable to deal with.

Better jobs, inflation, immigration, race, abortion, health care, Supreme Court and justice, crime and gun control - the blend and interplay of socio-cultural, economic and political homegrown problems and concerns have become mainstream. They have also grown more toxic and unresolvable. Whoever wins, however large the margin and whatever the feel good cheerleaders in the media and think tanks, including in Australia, may have to say in the election aftermath, US society - post election - will remain polarised and disunited with Republicans and Democratic leaders and party supporters standing firm and unyielding on opposite sides of the major domestic issues.