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The clear and present danger of modelling on public policy

By Murray Hunter - posted Wednesday, 2 November 2022


Nothing has been done to add checks and balances into the system of public decision making to prevent another catastrophe happening again.

Modelling is drastically changing society over climate change

The effects of modelling are being clearly seen in public climate change policy. Climate change, once referred to as global warming has amplified by pressure groups and the media over the last few decades.

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Climate change science is extremely complex, and we are just starting to understand the fundamentals of the phenomenon, still learning as new knowledge is uncovered. We are only starting to make our way among the factors that cause global warming and climate change. Climate change is not just an Earthly experience, and parallels can be seen on other planets. New paradigms in climate change are just opening up and will have great theoretical impact upon the science in coming decades.

Yet, there are many who say the science of climate change is final. We are still novices in physics, astronomy, metrology, and medicine, yet how can climate change science be final?

Once again, the doomsday fervour, alarmism, and fear we saw during the Covid-19 has refocused on climate change. This is all based upon modelling as a replacement for data and evidenced based science. Most of what people call facts are really only assumptions based upon observations, without really appreciating the magnitude of time. A cluster of events over a matter of years, cannot indicate any trends upon an Earth that is 4.5 billion years old.

To show how unreliable predictions can be, one only has to watch Al Gore's "An Inconvenient truth", which itself has become an inconvenient truth. A number of assumptions have been found to be drastically wrong.

The world is talking about carbon emission solutions, when the problem of climate change is much more complex.

Climate change needs to be tackled through multiple solutions to minimize and adapt, as our planetary history indicates to us.

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Very few people are coming out publicly with complex solutions to solve the complex issue of climate change. This is primarily out of fear of being 'cancelled' by those who dominate the media and narratives.

The current climate change solutions are one-dimensional.

Academics and technocrats are failing our nations, by providing societies with these one-dimensional solutions to complex problems. Vaccines and lockdown for Covid, and renewable energy for climate change.

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About the Author

Murray Hunter is an associate professor at the University Malaysia Perlis. He blogs at Murray Hunter.

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