Malaysia’s opposition coalition must radically change to survive

The anger over UMNO coming back to power through the back door didn't equate to electoral support for Pakatan.

The DAP has received considerable blame out of a perception of being silent over a number of unpopular decisions with its supporters when it was in government. DAP leader Lim Guan Eng's reputation is tainted with corruption issues yet to be resolved, with many party insiders believing he should have long ago stepped down. The grassroots faction of the party has been largely replaced with an elitist faction, conjuring up perceptions of Chinese chauvinism with many voters.

Anwar has become a divisive figure, leading to many party members questioning whether he should remain as coalition leader. He failed to nominate a shadow cabinet to effectively counter UMNO decisions and signed an MOU to support the Ismail Sabri government in parliament, leaving the impression of lust for power rather than principle.

Taking up party defectors cost Pakatan dearly. Former UMNO chief minister Idris Haron, running for PKR lost by more than 3,000 votes. Amanah's selection of defector Nor Azman Hassan, formally an UMNO member lost to the BN candidate Tuminah Mohd Hasim by more than 1,100.

In addition to taking on the political 'frogs', Anwar's decision to replace Ginie Lim, who had strong local support in Machap with another candidate Law Bing Haw, allowed the MCA to win the seat with a nearly 1,000 vote majority.

Anwar's lukewarm opposition to a racially unfair 2022 budget led to a lot of online criticism. Others claim that Anwar lacks any clear vision for Malaysia and want to see young candidates with fresh ideas. They are tired of the intra-party politics and Anwar falling out with key party allies, the latest being the popular Rafizi Ramli, who was a key electoral strategist for Anwar.

The calls for Anwar to resign have become much stronger now. Staying on as leader will be an electoral liability for PKR.

Malaysia is in the midst of a recession, with growing unemployment, rising poverty, rampant corruption, and a government steeped in corruption making unpopular decisions over issues sensitive to traditional Pakatan voters, which should have made winning easy. However, the Barisan Nasional was able to project itself as a multi-racial coalition, fighting for the same space as Pakatan. In the end, Perikatan Nasional votes eroded Pakatan support, rather than Barisan Nasional's, leading to both groups suffering badly in the polls.

Pakatan supporters have lost trust, seeing Syed Saddiq's new political movement MUDA as a new hope. Social media and whatsapp groups are now becoming excited over MUDA, with Pakatan now seen as losers.

The low turnout at 66 percent indicates voter apathy for all sides of politics. This is much more dangerous for Pakatan, as they have to defeat the incumbent government to take power. Pakatan must take close and careful notice and change, if they are to have even the slightest chance of winning GE15.

What are the options for Pakatan?

The first is to do nothing, the most likely scenario. If this occurs, there will be growing dissatisfaction among both respective coalition party members and voters. PKR could lose up to half of its current 47 seats in the federal parliament and the DAP may even lose a handful to successful MCA challenges. This would be a great setback for Pakatan, taking them a generation to recover.