How Afghanistan will influence geo-politics in the region

The Central Asian states are a buffer between Afghanistan and Russia where Russian President Putin has already offered the US the use of bases within Central Asia for intelligence gathering. Any assistance for the Northern Alliance would have to come through these Central Asian nations.

The withdrawal of the US may potentially increase Chinese influence in the region, a threat to Indian interests. The circumstances around the US withdrawal comes at a time when the US is trying to get closer to India bilaterally and through the QUAD, and may slow up India's warmth about closer relations in the short term.

For India, the Taliban in Kabul can be seen as a regional-political win for Pakistan. Pakistan was the home of many Taliban leaders for two decades after 9/11. The Pakistan army and ISI played a major role in the formation of the Taliban in 1994. However, its most likely the Taliban will not forget Pakistan's cooperation with the US over the last two decades. The Taliban can also be seen as a nationalist Pashtun movement, where there is a Pakistan Taliban that was pushed over into Afghanistan by the Pakistan army. The Taliban, both Afghan and Pakistani aspire to create a Pashtun Islamic emirate.

This week, a spokesman for the Taliban, stated that they do not accept the Durand Line, a line drawn by the British back in 1893 to define the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Durand Line cut through lands occupied by the Pashtun people, who dominate the Taliban. Fifteen million Pashtuns live within Afghanistan of a total population of 40 million while 42 million Pashtuns live in Pakistan, which has a total population of 216 million. This is potentially an area of conflict within Pakistan if more militant and nationalistic Taliban pursue this issue - and particularly if the Taliban splinters. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar spent 8 years in a Pakistani prison, a Pashtun who could be appointed president of the IEA.

Europe is bracing itself for a new surge of Afghani immigrants. The BBC reported that Greece hastily constructed a 40 km fence on its border with Turkey to deter Afghani migrants. There is also an expectation that there will be an increase in illicit opiate supplies around the world, due to the US withdrawal.

The final US evacuation from Hamid Karzai International Airport cuts both ways in political perception. The mainstream media is portraying the haphazard evacuation as a major Biden administration failure, and Islamic extremist social media is using the scenes as inspirational jihadist propaganda. Malaysia's Parti Se-Islam Malaysia (PAS), a member of the new Malaysian government sent a formal congratulatorily message to the Taliban for retaking power last week. However, the fact that the Taliban is giving the US and NATO allies free passage, points to a firm agreement and real-time exchanges in communication.

US long-term intentions towards the Taliban will be quickly assessed by observing how they deal with Amrullah Saleh and the Northern Alliance in future. Many former Afghan soldiers have made their way to the Panjshir Valley and remain loyal to self-declared Afghanistan president Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was a former minister of defence.

Some analysts claim the Taliban at the higher command levels has matured over the last twenty years, seeing the necessity to work more diplomatically, where at the lower levels, the field commanders are much more hardened in their beliefs and actions.

The Taliban is an ideology based on Shariah that many within Afghanistan accept, although 20 years of liberalism in Kabul has changed those who lived under the influence of the former government. This is why the US and NATO allies' nation building strategy failed - because western concepts of democracy were not seen as compatible with the Shariah, particularly in the provinces. The Taliban follow a moderate form of Hanafi Islam, which allows local customs. Many farmers are part-time Taliban rank and file, loyal to young local commanders, who now come from a more diverse tribal background than the older generation of Pashtuns. These younger commanders were also living within Pakistan under US occupation and the corrupt Kabul government so have a hard-line on those who cooperated with the former regime and foreign military forces.

Here lies a danger that the Taliban leaders may not be able to control the field commanders where the worst scenario would be splits, political instability, and fighting. Taliban authority will also depend upon how the various tribal warlords accept authority from Kabul. Opposition groups from the Northern Alliance, anti-Taliban warlords, and Islamic State may resist Taliban control, possibly leading to civil war. There is already some competition between the Taliban and ISIS for control over parts of the Afghan drug trade.

Only time will only tell whether the Taliban takes on the mantle of being a government or continues to be an insurgent organization intent on exporting "Islamic liberation" outside the country. The Taliban has to decide whether to engage government-to-government, or go back to the days where they harboured and nurtured extremist organizations. A recent UN report claims Al-Qaeda is currently present in 15 Afghanistan provinces, along with Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) veteran fighters in Syria. There are also former Daesh or ISIS fighters who fought in Iraq and Syria scattered around the countryside. Afghanistan is also hosting Uyghurs in exile. Here lies the danger and opportunity for Afghanistan.

A lot will depend upon how many countries and international organizations recognize the Taliban government. If Europe, the US, and major international organizations don't recognize the Taliban government, then the new government will be pushed into a corner. This is perhaps why the Taliban have reached out to former president Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun tribal leader himself, to assist in forming a workable government that is also acceptable to the US and NATO allies. However, Russian assessments of the situation in Afghanistan are concerned with a disintegration of the new Afghan government.

The US will have to completely overhaul security, diplomatic, and trade strategies for the Central Asian Region, as this sub-hemisphere is about to undergo a shift with a kaleidoscope of new dynamics, which have to be reckoned with.