Australia’s disgraced cardinal: paradoxes, ironies and martyrdom?

If Pell wins, it may be extremely difficult to prosecute other members of the clergy. The public prosecutor would be very reluctant to trial a case without much more evidence to support a case, which is extremely difficult in offenses that happened in the past. The church may choose to portray Pell in the metaphor of Jesus Christ, who was persecuted, suffered and overcame adversity.

That would consolidate the institution's conservatism while the victims and others would feel betrayed, cheated, and angry with the justice system. The church would continue to lose followers and in the medium term become irrelevant in Western society.

Sending the case back for retrial would prolong the trauma for another year. The same questions would remain unanswered. A retrial would bring more discussion about reforming criminal procedures in court.

The church brought this crisis upon itself by doing so very little about child abuse for so many years. The recent Vatican meeting on the subject is too little, too late. The silence from the Vatican appears to be in the hope of a successful appeal outcome, where it can reframe the narrative. The devastation from a dismissal would force the church to change to remain relevant. Whether it could do so is a big question.