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It ain't necessarily so on sea rise

By Mike Pope - posted Tuesday, 16 August 2016


The IPCC needs to regularly review and revise its advice to policy makers, having regard to the latest research and findings of climate scientists, rather than rely on data available to 2012, immediately prior to publication of the 5AR.

At present, authorities at all levels of government often cite 5AR estimates of mean SLR and use these for planning purposes. They do so in the belief that these are based on a degree of certainty that is far from true.

Planning authorities and owners of real estate located in areas which would be affected by sea level rise of 2-3 m or more should be aware that present IPCC estimates of a 0.9m sea level rise by 2100 are unrealistic.

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Over coming decades, current estimates of SLR will be repeatedly revised upwards, though possibly not in sufficient time to allow for prudent and timely policy development and planning to deal with future seal level rise.

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About the Author

Mike Pope trained as an economist (Cambridge and UPNG) worked as a business planner (1966-2006), prepared and maintained business plan for the Olympic Coordinating Authority 1997-2000. He is now semi-retired with an interest in ways of ameliorating and dealing with climate change.

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